Game Analysis
Alabama (-13) 34 Georgia 26
Alabama is better than their very impressive scores indicate, as the Crimson Tide would be even more impressive if they had to play their starters the entire game -as they’re likely to do here. I go through the play-by-play of each game and note the plays and yards for each team with and against backups and Alabama’s offense rates at 2.7 yards per play better than average with their starters in the game (8.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl) while the Tide defense is 1.6 yppl better than average when you exclude garbage time stats.
Georgia, meanwhile, is 2.1 yppl better than average offensively and 1.4 yppl better than average defensively when excluding garbage time stats. The total difference is just 0.8 yppl and even with Alabama expected to run a few more plays that difference is not enough to justify the nearly two touchdown spread on this game. Alabama is only 8 points better than Georgia, assuming Tua Tagovailoa and Jake Fromm take all the snaps at quarterback for their teams and I like the Bulldogs plus the points here.
Rush
-
Run Plays
37.2
30.7
-
Run Yards
208.7
113.6
-
YPRP
5.8
4.3
Pass
-
Pass Comp
19.8
14.8
-
Pass Att
28.2
29.7
-
Comp %
70.1%
50.0%
-
Pass Yards
329.5
162.7
-
Sacks
0.9
3.5
-
Sack Yards
7.2
19.2
-
Sack %
3.2%
10.6%
-
Pass Plays
29.1
33.2
-
Net Pass Yards
322.3
143.5
-
YPPP
11.1
4.3
Total
-
Total Plays
66.3
63.8
-
Total Yards
538.2
276.3
-
YPPL
8.1
4.3
TO
-
Int
0.3
1.2
-
Int %
1.2%
3.9%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.6
-
Turnovers
0.9
1.8
Rush
-
Run Plays
39.3
30.5
-
Run Yards
254.5
132.1
-
YPRP
6.7
4.7
Pass
-
Pass Comp
15.9
18.8
-
Pass Att
23.1
30.9
-
Comp %
68.9%
60.9%
-
Pass Yards
216.7
171.6
-
Sacks
1.4
1.8
-
Sack Yards
8.7
10.9
-
Sack %
5.6%
5.6%
-
Pass Plays
24.5
32.7
-
Net Pass Yards
208.0
160.7
-
YPPP
8.5
4.9
Total
-
Total Plays
63.7
63.3
-
Total Yards
471.2
303.7
-
YPPL
7.4
4.8
TO
-
Int
0.5
0.6
-
Int %
1.9%
1.8%
-
Fumbles
0.6
0.7
-
Turnovers
1.0
1.3
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Louisville |
51-14 |
-24.0
W
|
41/21 |
241/46 |
5.9/2.2 |
1/0 |
17/19 |
25/39 |
288/203 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
11.1/4.7 |
529/249 |
7.9/3.9 |
09/08/18 Arkansas St. |
57-7 |
-36.0
W
|
43/29 |
284/155 |
6.6/5.3 |
1/0 |
20/22 |
28/51 |
314/208 |
0/1 |
1/2 |
10.8/3.9 |
598/363 |
8.3/4.4 |
09/15/18 @ Mississippi |
62-7 |
-22.5
W
|
43/33 |
217/146 |
5.0/4.4 |
1/1 |
19/7 |
28/22 |
308/117 |
1/2 |
0/4 |
11.0/4.5 |
525/263 |
7.4/4.5 |
09/22/18 Texas A&M |
45-23 |
-26.0
L
|
27/21 |
117/161 |
4.3/7.7 |
0/0 |
25/23 |
33/44 |
407/232 |
0/2 |
1/7 |
12.0/4.5 |
524/393 |
8.6/5.5 |
09/29/18 UL Lafayette |
56-14 |
-49.0
L
|
45/36 |
270/182 |
6.0/5.1 |
0/0 |
13/10 |
16/20 |
273/35 |
0/2 |
1/2 |
16.1/1.6 |
543/217 |
8.8/3.7 |
10/06/18 @ Arkansas |
65-31 |
-35.0
L
|
40/30 |
249/176 |
6.2/5.9 |
0/2 |
14/26 |
18/40 |
393/229 |
0/1 |
0/1 |
21.8/5.6 |
642/405 |
11.1/5.7 |
10/13/18 Missouri |
39-10 |
-28.0
W
|
44/31 |
198/103 |
4.5/3.3 |
1/1 |
19/13 |
30/26 |
368/117 |
0/2 |
1/4 |
11.9/3.9 |
566/220 |
7.5/3.6 |
10/20/18 @ Tennessee |
58-21 |
-28.5
W
|
40/25 |
220/69 |
5.5/2.8 |
0/1 |
21/14 |
32/25 |
327/204 |
1/0 |
0/4 |
10.2/7.0 |
547/273 |
7.6/5.1 |
11/03/18 @ LSU |
29-0 |
-14.0
W
|
35/20 |
288/41 |
8.2/2.1 |
0/0 |
25/18 |
42/35 |
290/155 |
1/1 |
1/5 |
6.7/3.9 |
578/196 |
7.4/3.3 |
11/10/18 Mississippi St. |
24-0 |
-22.0
W
|
41/23 |
181/87 |
4.4/3.8 |
1/1 |
17/11 |
27/20 |
164/90 |
1/0 |
4/5 |
5.3/3.6 |
345/177 |
4.8/3.7 |
11/17/18 Citadel |
50-17 |
0.0
W
|
22/59 |
192/280 |
8.7/4.7 |
2/1 |
21/0 |
26/2 |
369/-4 |
0/0 |
0/1 |
14.2/-1.3 |
561/276 |
11.7/4.5 |
11/24/18 Auburn |
52-21 |
-24.5
W
|
25/40 |
133/147 |
5.3/3.7 |
0/0 |
26/15 |
33/32 |
367/136 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
10.8/3.9 |
500/283 |
8.5/3.8 |
Straight Up: ,
Against the Spread:
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
RUSHING PLAYS |
PASSING PLAYS |
TOTAL |
Opponent |
Score |
Spread |
Atts |
Yds |
Yprp |
Fum |
Comp |
Att |
Yds |
Int |
Sack |
Yppp |
Yds |
Yppl |
09/01/18 Austin Peay |
45-0 |
-45.5
L
|
32/29 |
286/103 |
8.9/3.6 |
1/1 |
21/13 |
27/21 |
224/61 |
0/0 |
0/0 |
8.3/2.9 |
510/164 |
8.6/3.3 |
09/08/18 @ South Carolina |
41-17 |
-10.0
W
|
49/18 |
289/59 |
5.9/3.3 |
0/0 |
16/31 |
19/48 |
188/239 |
1/2 |
2/1 |
9.0/4.9 |
477/298 |
6.8/4.4 |
09/15/18 Middle Tenn St |
49-7 |
-32.5
W
|
30/38 |
275/158 |
9.2/4.2 |
0/1 |
17/19 |
21/30 |
212/128 |
0/1 |
2/0 |
9.2/4.3 |
487/286 |
9.2/4.2 |
09/22/18 @ Missouri |
43-29 |
-14.5
L
|
38/35 |
187/181 |
4.9/5.2 |
0/2 |
13/23 |
23/48 |
260/212 |
1/1 |
0/2 |
11.3/4.2 |
447/393 |
7.3/4.6 |
09/29/18 Tennessee |
38-12 |
-31.0
L
|
46/22 |
239/76 |
5.2/3.5 |
0/1 |
17/13 |
24/21 |
173/135 |
0/0 |
3/2 |
6.4/5.9 |
412/211 |
5.6/4.7 |
10/06/18 Vanderbilt |
41-13 |
-26.0
W
|
31/28 |
233/142 |
7.5/5.1 |
0/0 |
21/16 |
31/30 |
335/179 |
0/0 |
1/1 |
10.5/5.8 |
568/321 |
9.0/5.4 |
10/13/18 @ LSU |
16-36 |
-7.0
L
|
26/46 |
136/300 |
5.2/6.5 |
2/0 |
16/15 |
34/30 |
188/177 |
2/0 |
3/3 |
5.1/5.4 |
324/477 |
5.1/6.0 |
10/27/18 Florida |
36-17 |
-6.5
W
|
39/36 |
195/181 |
5.0/5.0 |
0/2 |
17/13 |
24/21 |
235/99 |
0/1 |
1/1 |
9.4/4.5 |
430/280 |
6.7/4.8 |
11/03/18 @ Kentucky |
34-17 |
-8.5
W
|
47/31 |
342/117 |
7.3/3.8 |
2/2 |
14/23 |
20/29 |
113/193 |
0/0 |
0/4 |
5.7/5.8 |
455/310 |
6.8/4.8 |
11/10/18 Auburn |
27-10 |
-12.5
W
|
42/20 |
329/102 |
7.8/5.1 |
0/0 |
15/25 |
22/37 |
193/172 |
1/0 |
2/0 |
8.0/4.6 |
522/274 |
7.9/4.8 |
11/17/18 Massachusetts |
66-27 |
-41.0
L
|
42/19 |
385/117 |
9.2/6.2 |
1/0 |
14/24 |
17/32 |
229/155 |
0/1 |
1/3 |
12.7/4.4 |
614/272 |
10.2/5.0 |
11/24/18 Georgia Tech |
45-21 |
-16.5
W
|
42/43 |
285/140 |
6.8/3.3 |
1/0 |
15/5 |
19/14 |
162/79 |
0/0 |
0/3 |
8.5/4.6 |
447/219 |
7.3/3.7 |