Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Alabama (-17)  43   ARKANSAS  20

I realize that Alabama has played poorly in 4 of 5 true road games since the beginning of last season but that’s a small sample and Nick Saban’s teams are 20-11 ATS as a road favorite of 14 points or more in SEC play since he became the head coach of the Crimson Tide.

The battle between the Arkansas offense (1.1 yards per play better than average) and the Alabama defense (2.2 yppl better than average with starters in) should be fairly competitive, as the Razorbacks did a good job of moving the ball against the Tide last season (although this year’s Bama defense is better). However, a sub-par Arkansas defense has no chance of containing a potent Alabama attack that’s averaged over 500 yard and 8.1 yards per play with Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young in the game. Young was held in check at Texas, but the Longhorns have my #13 rated pass defense and Arkansas is once again having issues defending the pass without former All-American safety Jalen Catalon, who is out for the season.

Arkansas gave up 7.4 yards per pass play in 6 games without Catalon last season and the Razorbacks’ defense has been 1.1 yppp worse than average in 3 games without him so far this season, giving up 6.4 yppp to 3 below average to bad passing teams (South Carolina, Missouri State, and Texas A&M) that would combine to average just 5.6 yppp against an average defensive team. Bryce Young will pick apart that weakened secondary while Bama’s #1 rated ground attack (8.0 yards per rushing play!) will chew up yardage on the ground against a sub-par Arkansas run defense (5.3 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average team) that just gave up 7.5 yprp to Texas A&M last week. Alabama’s offense should move the ball however they want to in this game.

Alabama is a Strong Opinion at -18 or less.