Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – INDIANA (-16)  32   Akron  10

Indiana is 1-2 straight up but the Hoosiers have covered the spread in all 3 of their games thanks to a better than average defense and an offense that looks improved with Tayven Jackson taking over at quarterback for the ineffective Brendan Sorsby. Sorsby averaged just 4.6 yards on his 34 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB) while Jackson has completed 72% of his passes while averaging 8.9 yards on 62 pass plays (against teams that would allow 7.3 yppp). I don’t think Jackson is going to continue to be 1.6 yppp better than average (although he might be) but the Hoosiers have been 0.4 yppp better than average as a team and Akron has been 1.8 yppp worse than average defensively through 3 games (and were projected to be 1.4 yppp worse than average prior to the season). Indiana should be able to throw the ball well enough to make up for their bad rushing attack.

The Hoosiers’ defense has been 0.5 yppl better than average and held good offensive teams Ohio State and Louisville to an average of just 22 points. Akron is a horrible offensive team that has managed just 4.3 yppl against 3 teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense. The Zips were held to 3.4 yppl and 3 points by the only better than average defense that they’ve faced (last week against Kentucky) and they managed only 4.5 yppl the week before that against FCS team Morgan State, who would allow 6.5 yppl to an average FBS team. It’s not likely that Akron will score more than 10 points in this game, and we should get at least 27 from the Hoosiers.

Indiana is a Strong Opinion at -17 or less.