Game Analysis

Lean – FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-22)  43   Akron  16

Lean – Under (64)

Florida Atlantic, of all teams, is the biggest bowl favorite since at least 1980 (as far back as my database goes back), and the Owls have a coach that’s an unapologetic asshole that likes to run up the score and no doubt knows what the pointspread is. Usually backing a huge favorite in a bowl game is not a good idea, but Lane Kiffin should have his team excited to build on their momentum in front of their home fans (his game is played at FAU Stadium) and Akron is a horrible, horrible team that is 19 points worse than an average FBS team.

How the Zips won 6 games is the biggest mystery of this season (aside from how they managed to cover against Toledo in the MAC Championship game, which I’m still upset about). Akron was outgained this season 316 yards at 4.9 yppl to 454 yards at 6.2 yppl despite facing a schedule of teams that would be outgained by 0.3 yppl by an average FBS team.

Florida Atlantic has won 6 games this season by 24 points or more and Akron is 11 points worse than the average team that the Owls faced this season, so winning by 24 points or more in this game should be expected. FAU averaged 39.4 points on 481 yards at 6.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average team and the Owls are projected to gain 531 yards at 7.3 yppl against a horrible Akron defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average.

The Florida Atlantic defense is pretty good by lower conference standards, as the Owls were just 0.1 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average FBS defense. That unit has a huge edge over a horrible Akron attack that managed just 21 points per game and 4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. My math model projects just 332 yards at 4.5 yppl for the Zips in this game, so it will be a challenge for them to reach 20 points.

My math model favors FAU by 27 ½ points in this game, with a total of 59 points so the value is with Florida Atlantic and the under. Akron scored two late touchdowns to cover the spread on the final play against Toledo, who turned it over 5 times after averaging just 1 turnover per game heading into that game but they aren’t likely to be as lucky today. Toledo pulled their defensive starters to allow that final touchdown but Lane Kiffin is less likely to do that given his desire to beat down his opponents into submission and because he understands that his alumni are betting on his team and he’ll do what he can to cover. That’s not to say that FAU will cover the number but they are more likely to than most huge favorites in bowl games because most huge bowl favorites are playing in a bowl game that they are disappointed to be playing in, which is not the case here. I’ll lean with FAU at -24 or less, and I’ll lean under 63 or higher. I’d upgrade Florida Atlantic to a Strong Opinion if the line drops to -21 points or less.