Game Analysis

Lean – Washington State (+2.5)  36   Air Force  34

Washington State is a good team with one major weakness that will not be fully exploited in this game. The Cougars have an elite offense but their inability to defend the pass killed them this season. That’s not going to be nearly as much of a problem against an Air Force option offense that runs the ball 85% of the time. Air Force will certainly have success when they do throw the ball, as quarterback Donald Hammond III averaged 12.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). However, Air Force should have a bit better than usual success running the ball, as Washington’s State’s run defense (0.5 yprp worse than average) is 0.3 yprp worse than that of the average defense that the Falcons faced this season. Air Force doesn’t usually throw the ball more unless their rushing attack is being slowed down so they’re not likely to take advantage of a Cougars’ pass defense that is 1.2 yppp worse than average (7.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.7 yppp against an average defense). If Air Force runs the ball 85% of the time, as they normally do, the Washington State’s defense would be about 4 points better than if facing an offense that runs and throws evenly – and that match up value is why my model favors Washington to win this game.

The math still projects 458 yards at 7.2 yards per play for Air Force in this game but Washington State’s prolific offense (514 yards per game and 7.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) is scheduled to tally 480 yards at 7.6 yppl against an Air Force defense whose ability to defend the run (4.4 yprp allowed) is nearly wasted against a Cougars’ attack that will likely throw the ball 80% of the time. Air force is just average defending the pass (6.5 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.5 yppp against an average defense), which is 0.3 yppp worse than the average defense that WSU faced in their 11 FBS games this season. So, there is also matchup value favoring Washington State when they have the ball because their pass-heavy offense plays away from the strength of the Air Force defense. Reports are that Washington State’s top receiver Brandon Arconado should be ready to go with his injured wrist (he’s listed as questionable), but the difference is only about a point if he doesn’t play.

Overall the math favors Washington State by 2.7 points, with a total of 70.9 points, assuming that the roof at Chase Field is closed. Air Force does apply to a 70-31-2 ATS bowl situation and the 3 service academies are a combined 34-14 ATS in bowl games since 1980, but I’ll still lean with Washington State, as it’s rare that you have this much match-up value in a game.