Game Analysis

Note: Air Force was released as a Best Bet earlier in the week at -3.5. The line has since moved to -6, which is out of Best Bet range.

1-Star Best Bet- *Air Force (-3.5)  27   SAN JOSE STATE  16

I had San Jose State rated lower than the market to start the season and bet under 5.5 wins for the Spartans. San Jose has actually played better than I expected through 4 games (3 losses with their lone win against an FCS team) but I had Air Force rated higher than the market prior to the season and the Falcons have also been better than expected.

San Jose State has been 0.4 yppl worse than average offensively as quarterback Chevan Cordeiro has struggled without his top 4 receivers (in teams of yards) from last season (3 of them moved on and top returning WR Justin Lockhart hasn’t played and is out for the season). Cordeiro has averaged only 5.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB). The Spartans’ defense has been better than projected due to a huge improvement in their pass defense from a season ago. However, that unit has yielded 6.5 yards per rushing play in 3 games against FBS opponents and having a good pass defense doesn’t matter against an Air Force team that’s only throwing the ball 3 to 5 times per game. The Air Force option has racked up an average of 325 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per rushing play and they should move the ball well in this game.

Overall the Air Force offense has been about average, but their defense has been great. The Falcons’ dominated bad offensive teams Robert Morris and Sam Houston, holding them to an average of just 122 total yards at 2.6 yards per play and 5.0 points, and the 5.0 yppl and 21 points allowed to Utah State was good given that the Aggies averaged 4.6 yppl on the road against an Iowa defense that is among the best in the nation (and scored 78 points on 591 yards at 8.8 yppl against Idaho State, who would allow 7.0 yppl to an average FBS offense).

Air Force has been 8.3 points better than an average FBS team so far this season and I rated the Falcons at 4.1 points better than average heading into the season. The market still rates Air Force around average and there is significant value on the Falcons even with San Jose State being better than projected (I had them 8.3 points worse than an average FBS team heading into the season and they currently rate at -4.3 points). In addition to the line value (I favor AF by 8) the Air Force applies to a very good 101-36-2 ATS situation while San Jose State applies to a 46-102-2 ATS situation.

Air Force is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 or less and a Strong Opinion to -5.