Air Force @

Nevada

Sat, Nov 23
Fox Sports 1
7:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 181
Odds: Nevada -3, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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1-Star Best Bet – *NEVADA (-3 -120)  25   Air force  15

The line on this game appears to be an overreaction to Air Force winning two games in a row after a 7 game losing streak. However, the Falcons were outplayed 4.2 yppl to 7.7 yppl in their home win over Fresno State and they faced Oregon State’s 3rd string quarterback last week after #2 QB McCoy went down with injury after just 2 passes (#1 QB Gulbranson was injured). Air Force still played well in shutting out the Beavers 28-0, but I can’t given them much credit for dominating a 3rd string quarterback that hadn’t prepared to be the starter. The Air Force defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in their other 8 games against FBS opposition and I rate Nevada’s offense at 0.4 yppl worse than average without RB Savion Red (676 yards at 6.0 ypr), as his backups have struggled this season (Nevada is average offensively for the season). Quarterback Brendon Lewis is the team’s leading rusher and he carried the offensive load in an easy cover as a huge underdog at Boise State without Red in the Wolf Pack’s most recent game (lost just 21-28 at Boise as a 25-point dog in a Best Bet win).

The advantage for Nevada is in this game is their defense (0.3 yppl worse than average) against a horrible Air Force offense that’s been 1.7 yppl worse than average this season (4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack). The market seems to think they’ve dramatically improved, but they’ve still been 1.5 yppl worse than average offensively in the two games they won the last two weeks (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl), which includes a game in which they averaged 19.3 yards on 7 pass plays, which is a fluke (just 5.3 yppp for the season). Air Force is still terrible on offense and Nevada is still a much better team, even without their top running back.

Nevada is a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Air Force
  • Nevada
AF
Offense
Defense

Rush

  • Run Plays 53.2 32.1
  • Run Yards 222.4 170.1
  • YPRP 4.2 5.3




Pass





  • Pass Comp 5.9 14.1
  • Pass Att 13.2 22.1
  • Comp % 44.7% 63.8%
  • Pass Yards 89.5 173.6
  • Sacks 1.7 1.2
  • Sack Yards 10.6 8.2
  • Sack % 11.4% 5.2%
  • Pass Plays 14.9 23.3
  • Net Pass Yards 78.9 165.4
  • YPPP 5.3 7.1

Total

  • Total Plays 68.1 55.4
  • Total Yards 301.3 335.5
  • YPPL 4.4 6.1

TO


  • Int 0.9 0.3
  • Int % 6.8% 1.4%
  • Fumbles 0.5 0.8
  • Turnovers 1.4 1.1
 
  • Points 17.4 24.0
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