Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *COLORADO STATE (+3)  over Air Force

The reason for this play is the Air Force offense going from slightly above average on a national scale to being 1.4 yards per play worse than average without starting quarterback Liam Szarka, who was the team’s leading rusher and averaged 9.6 yards per pass play. In what amounts to 3 full games (186 plays), the Air Force offense has managed just 5.0 yards per play against defenses that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offense (weighted by how many plays the Falcons ran without Szarka against each defense). Air Force has scored one touchdown in 1 ½ games since Szarka’s injury against UConn in week 12 and last week they scored just 3 points in our Best Bet win on New Mexico.

Colorado State’s defense is about the same level as the UConn defense that Air Force manages just 5.2 yppl against in 33 plays without Szarka and they’re projected to gain just 347 yards at 5.0 yppl in this game, which equates to 20 points.

There are two scenarios for the Colorado State offense.

The best for us is if Rams’ quarterback Jackson Brousseau is healthy enough to make it back onto the field after missing last week’s game. Brousseau is not good (1.0 yards per pass play worse than average on 183 pass plays) but that’s not much worse than the team’s rating for the season and Air Force has a horrible pass defense that’s allowed 8.7 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.2 yppp against an average quarterback. With Brousseau healthy the Rams would be projected to gain 390 yards at 6.5 yppl and score 29 points. Brousseau was listed as questionable on the team’s participation report.

The other scenario is the one I’m worried about. With opening week starter Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi quitting the team after being benched and freshman Darius Curry (last week’s starter) suspended for spitting on a Boise State player that would leave Tahj Bullock as the likely starter. Bullock has some experience in two seasons at Akron and has been used this season in the Wildcat formation as a runner and I suspect the Rams will run 75% of the time if Bullock is behind center. Bullock has completed just 55% of his 100 career passes while averaging a paltry 4.7 yards per attempt and 3.2 yards per pass play (he takes a lot of sacks).

Assuming the Rams run the ball 75% of the time if Bullock is behind center, I’d project 5.25 yards per rushing play against a bad Air Force defensive front that has trouble defending the run (5.9 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.9 yprp against an average defense) and only 5.0 yppp for Bullock against that horrible Falcons’ pass defense. That would result in 288 yards at 5.2 yppl and 19.5 projected points. However, more running will lead to far fewer total plays in the game, which would lower the Air Force projections to 328 yards at 5.0 yppl and 18.9 points.

There would be a ton of value on Colorado State in this game if Brousseau is healthy enough to start (CSU by 9 points) but I still get the Rams by 0.6 points with Bullock at quarterback assuming that they don’t try to throw the ball much more than the 25% of plays that I’m projecting.

Colorado State is a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or more.