2016 South Region
(1) Kansas (30-4)
Kansas is the #1 overall seed in this year’s tournament and the Jayhawks have no weaknesses, as they are a good shooting team (9th in effective FG%) while also ranking 5th in compensated points per possession allowed. Kansas is 15-3 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams and were upset by a bad team just once all season, a 19 point loss at Oklahoma State. The Jayhawks’ other 3 losses were to top 20 rated teams Michigan State, West Virginia (who they also beat 2 times) and Iowa State (split 2 games with the Cyclones) but overall Kansas was 5-3 against my top 20 teams. The Jayhawks are clearly a team that is expected to make a run at the Final Four but I doubt there will be any value in picking them to win it all.
(2) Villanova (29-5)
Villanova has a high overall rating (5th) but the Wildcats have a recent history of early exits in the NCAA Tournament. Villanova hasn’t made it to the Sweet 16 since 2009 despite being seeded #1 or #2 in 3 of those tournaments. This year’s team is like the previous 2 editions in that the Wildcats take a lot of 3-point shots (44% of their shots are from 3-point range), which is a characteristic of high seeded teams that lose early round games. Teams that take a lot of 3-pointers are subject to more variance, which makes it more likely that an inferior team will beat them since all it takes is one bad 3-point shooting game to end their tournament if their opponent is playing well. This Villanova team is good enough to avoid losing to a bad team, as their worst loss of the season was an overtime loss to Providence, but the Wildcats would be better served by taking more shots closer to the rim given that they are 6th in the nation in 2-point FG shooting and below average from beyond the 3-point arc (34.4%). Villanova can overcome a bad outside shooting night because they play good defense (6th in the nation in compensated points per possession allowed) but Nova is just 1-3 against top 20 teams (split 2 games with Xavier and lost to Oklahoma and Virginia by an average of 17 points) so an off shooting night against a good team will doom them again. You’re likely better off picking Villanova to lose in round of 32 or Sweet 16 than picking them to make the Final Four.
(3) Miami-Florida (25-7)
Miami had a few losses to lesser teams (Northeastern, Clemson, NC State and Virginia Tech) but the Hurricanes don’t have the statistical profile of a team that is likely to be upset in the early rounds. Miami takes care of the ball and doesn’t take a lot of 3-point shots, characteristics that don’t bring a lot of variance into play. Miami’s other 3 losses were to #1 seeds Virginia and UNC and there isn’t any common thread to the 4 teams that upset the Hurricanes other than the fact that they combined for 50% 3-point shooting, which is just random given Miami is better than average in 3-point defense. Miami seeding is reasonable (I had them pegged as a #3 or #4 seed at worst) and it will take a hot shooting night for a lower seeded team to beat them.
(4) California (23-10)
California started the season ranked 14th in the polls because of incoming top 10 recruits Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, but the Bears took some time to gel as Brown struggled to adapt to college ball. The turning point for the Bears was actually a mid-season injury to 2015 All-Pac 12 PG Tyrone Wallace, which forced Brown to take on more of a point-forward role that helped his overall game. The Bears took off when Wallace returned for a 20 point home win over #1 seeded Oregon and they won 9 of their final 11 games with the two losses being a heartbreaker at Arizona (lost by 3 by allowing the final 11 points) and an overtime loss to Utah in the Pac 12 tournament. Cal has 3 former McDonald’s High school All-American’s in the starting lineup to go along with NBA prospect Wallace and a great 3-point shooter in Jordan Matthews coming off the bench. The Bears’ also have two 7-footers to protect the rim and dish out 10 fouls and the Bears are #1 in the nation in 2-point defense (just 40.9% allowed). Cal’s weakness is their horrible free throw shooting (65.6%), which has cost them a few games and could ultimately prove to be their downfall in this tournament. However, there aren’t many teams with a more talented starting 5 than the Bears, who could make a deep run if future NBA lottery pick Jaylen Brown can avoid one his self-destructive games. As far as I’m concerned, Brown gets far too much hype for a guy shooting 43.5% from the field, 30% from 3-point range and 65% from the line, but when he’s on the Bears can beat any team in the nation. That’s been proven by taking #1 seed Virginia to overtime on the road (they would have won had it not been for 58% 3-point shooting by UVA) and outplaying #1 seed Oregon twice, beating the Ducks by 20 points in Berkeley and losing by just 3 points on the road despite randomly bad 0 for 12 3-point shooting. If you’re looking for a reason to pick Kansas to lose before the Final Four the Bears should be considered.
(5) Maryland (25-8)
Maryland has plenty of talent and size and the Terps are a good offensive team (55.6% effective FG%) when they’re not being careless with the ball (243rd in the nation in offensive turnover percentage). The Terrapins are also solid defensively (32nd in my compensated defensive efficiency ratings) and overall they’re a solid team. However, there’s something about Maryland that doesn’t seem right and the Terps are just 4-6 against my top 50 rated teams. However, most of that was against top 20 rated teams (1-5 against North Carolina, Michigan State, Purdue, and Indiana) and Maryland isn’t too susceptible to an upset loss. A potential 2nd round game against Cal will be interesting, as the Bears can match their height and rank #1 in 2-point defense (Maryland is 11th in 2-point offense). Should Maryland get to the Sweet 16 they certainly have the talent to compete with #1 Kansas.
(6) Arizona (25-8)
Some people are surprised by Arizona’s #6 seed but the Wildcats don’t really deserve better given their performance this season against other good teams. The best team Arizona beat this season was Cal, whom the Wildcats beat at home by just 3 points by scoring the final 11 points. Zona actually split their two games with the Bears but they were 0-3 against the other top tier Pac-12 teams,Utah and Oregon, and were just 4-7 against my top 50 rated teams (they also lost to Providence, USC, and Colorado). Arizona is sound on both sides of the court (18th in compensated offense and 21st in compensated defense) but the Wildcats are relatively worse against better teams and that’s not a good sign for them heading into this tournament. I don’t necessarily see them getting upset since they mostly beat the teams they were supposed to beat, but I don’t think they’ll beat a superior team unless they have some luck on their side.
(7) Iowa (21-10)
Iowa started the season 19-4 and 10-1 in the Big 10 with 2 wins over Michigan State and 2 wins over Purdue but the Hawkeyes are just 2-6 since then, including an upset loss to Illinois in the first round of the Big 10 tournament. So what happened and which version of Iowa can we expect in this tournament? Iowa wasn’t as good as their results indicated in those first 21 games, as the Hawkeyes benefitted from significant 3-point defense variance (29.4% 3-pointers allowed is much lower than expected) and opponents were making just 66.5% of their free throws. In the most recent 8 games, Iowa’s opponents have made 35.3% of their 3-point shots, which is more in line with expectations, and 72% of their free throws (also about what’s expected). However, I don’t expect the Hawkeyes to be as bad as they’ve been recently because they’re not likely to continue to make only 33.5% of their own 3-point shots given they’re a 38% 3-point shooting team over the course of the entire season. Iowa’s variance adjusted rating over the final 8 games is actually only 2 points worse than their variance adjusted rating in their first 23 games. The only difference is that Iowa isn’t as lucky lately as they were earlier in the season. Iowa is still a dangerous team but they don’t match up so well against teams that can score inside the 3-point arc. The Hawkeyes rank 133rd in the nation in 2-point defense and 260th in defensive rebounding and they were 0-4 this season against teams that rank in the top 20 in 2-point offense (Iowa State, Indiana twice, and Maryland). A team that can get to the rim and doesn’t need to make 3-pointers should have an advantage against the Hawkeyes.
(8) Colorado (22-11)
For a team with an efficient lost post scorer in Josh Scott (53.2% FG) it’s amazing how bad Colorado is as a team on 2-point shots. The Buffaloes rank 336th in the nation with a 43.7% 2-point percentage and their offense depends too much on making 3-point shots when Scott is double-teamed. Fortunately, the Buffs have multiple players that can knock down long jump shots (38.9% 3-point shooting as a team) and those shooters are going to have to be hot for Colorado to make a run in this tournament. The Buffaloes are just 4-9 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams but they do have wins against top-25 rated teams Oregon, Cal, and Arizona – so the potential is there to beat a superior team. First round opponent U Conn is a tough match up, as the Huskies’ shot blocker Amida Brimah (2.6 blocks per game) can probably handle Josh Scott one-on-one while the rest of the team locks down on the perimeter. The #9 seed is the better team and Colorado is less than 50% to win a game in this tournament.
(9) Connecticut (24-10)
Connecticut had an exciting and successful run through the American Athletic Conference tournament and the Huskies have a history of surprising runs through the NCAA Tournament. U Conn won the national championship as a #7 seed two years ago but it’s hard to imagine the Huskies making a deep run this year. Connecticut only has 1 win against a top 25 rated team (home against SMU) and they lost the rematch to the Mustangs by 26 points. Overall, the Huskies are just 3-6 against my top 50 teams and they play relatively worse against better competition. First round opponent Colorado is certainly beatable (U Conn is favored) but beating Kansas in the round of 32 would be a long shot.
(10) Temple (21-11)
The committee appears to have given too much credit to teams playing the American Athletic Conference, which would explain how Tulsa got in, but Temple won the regular season title in that league with a 14-4 record and the Owls rank 65th in my ratings – so I don’t really think that they are good enough either. But, I suppose their good conference record and a decent 5-7 record against my top teams was enough to sway the committee. However, Temple has been more lucky than good (9-4 in close games) and they’ll need to hope for a bad shooting game from Iowa to advance.
(11) Wichita State (24-8)
Wichita State is much better than the #11 seed that they garnered but I suppose losing to Northern Iowa twice, to Illinois State, to Tulsa, and to Alabama made it tough for the committee to give the Shockers a higher seed. The committee may have seeded Wichita based on their entire season but the Shockers were 0-3 against Division 1 opposition without star Fred VanVleet and PG Anton Grady also missed time early in the season. Wichita State is 23-4 since VanVleet returned from his early season injury and they played well in 2 games against NCAA caliber opponents with VanVleet in the lineup – beating Utah by 17 points and taking Seton Hall to overtime before losing a road game to the Pirates. Wichita is a very strong defensive team, ranking 9th in the nation in compensated defensive efficiency, but the Shockers are a mediocre shooting team and their 3 conference losses were games in which they shot a combined 15 for 82 (28.3%) from 3-point range. Wichita should have a chance in every game, even if they’re not shooting well, because they play great defense and don’t turn the ball over (11th in offensive turnover percentage). Wichita is the most under-seeded team in this tournament so don’t be shocked if this team makes a run to the elite 8 or further.
(11) Vanderbilt (19-13)
Vanderbilt is what I refer to as a bully. The Commodores tend to beat up on lesser teams and play relatively worse against strong teams, which is reflected in their 5-12 record against teams ranked in my top 90, which includes losses to non-NCAA tourney teams LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State. Vandy also lost to a wounded Tennessee team without their star player in the first round of the SEC tournament and I’m surprised they made the tournament. I suppose wins over Kentucky and Texas A&M impressed the committee but you’d think those would be balanced out by all the bad losses the Commodores had. Overall, Vanderbilt by just 2-7 against NCAA Tournament caliber teams and I’m puzzled as to how they got in over a team like St. Mary’s that was 27-5 overall, including 2-1 against Gonzaga and a close loss to Cal in Berkeley (the closest game Cal had all year at home). Isn’t it better to go 2-2 against top 50 teams than to go 2-7? I realize that St Mary’s didn’t play a tough schedule overall but the Gaels played well against the good teams that they did play and they also didn’t lose 6 games to teams outside of the top 50 like Vanderbilt did. What a joke. Thank you for allowing me this platform to rant about how incompetent the committee is. Having said all of that, Vanderbilt has incredible talent at multiple positions and the Commodores are good enough defensively to make a run if their outside shots are falling and they play up to their talent level. However, getting by Wichita State in the play in game is not going to be easy.
(12) South Dakota State (26-7)
South Dakota State has some characteristics of a team that could pull off an upset, as the Jackrabbits can make outside shots (36% 3-point shooting) and they don’t give their opponents many extra possessions because they rebound well and don’t turn the ball over too much. SDSU only played one games against a good team all season and that resulted in a 12 point loss at Texas Tech, so beating Maryland would still be an unlikely accomplishment.
(13) Hawaii (27-5)
Hawaii is a good team that nearly beat Oklahoma at home (lost by 3) and would have been closer in an 8 point loss at Texas Tech if not for negative 3-point (29.2%) and free throw (57.9%) variance. However, Warriors rely on their guards to penetrate and either get to the rim for layups or get fouled. Hawaii ranks 16th in 2-point shooting (54.6%) and 6th in the nation in free throw attempt ratio but their opening opponent Cal doesn’t easily allow dribble penetration and the Bears have a couple of 7-footers to help protect the rim. The Bears rank #1 in the nation in 2-point defense and beating Cal requires that a team make their outside shots, which is something that Hawaii doesn’t do well (just 32.8% 3-point shooting). I think Hawaii is a bit underrated but the Warriors got a bad match up.
(14) Buffalo (20-14)
Buffalo played a tough non-conference schedule that included games against St. Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure, Duke, Iowa State, and VCU. The Bulls also lost all of those games and I don’t see them beating Miami either.
(15) UNC Asheville (22-11)
Asheville plays an aggressive style of defense and the Bulldogs ranked #3 in the nation in defensive steal percentage. That style can backfire against a team with superior athletes that takes care of the ball, which was demonstrated with a 47-75 loss to Texas A&M. Asheville can claim a 6 point win at Georgetown but that was a function of 4 for 22 3-point shooting by the Hoyas. Villanova is better than average in offensive turnovers and only horrible 3-point shooting would keep the Wildcats from winning that match up. That actually could happen given that Villanova likes to take a lot of 3-point shots despite being a worse than average 3-point shooting team (34.4%) and Asheville ranks 2nd in the nation in 3-point defense (28.8% allowed). I wouldn’t recommend picking that upset, and Villanova could just as easily win that game by 20 points, but there is a scenario that could see Asheville pull off the shocking upset.
(16) Austin Peay (18-17)
Austin Peay won 4 games in 4 days to capture the Ohio Valley Conference tournament and taking on #1 Kansas is their reward. The Governors played two good teams this season and both were ugly results – a 39 point loss at Vanderbilt and a 26 point loss at Indiana.