Belichick or Buffett? Who would you invest in?

By EVBettor

Bill Belichick is far and away the best coach the NFL has seen this century, taking over the New England Patriots in 2000, he has accumulated 225-80 record (including playoffs), for a 74% win percentage and a 59% Against the Spread (“ATS”) record, continually surpassing bookmakers’ expectations.  The next highest team has a 64% win rate (Steelers), as the Pats have dominated the pro football competition and sports betting markets.

Warren Buffett is largely known as one of the best allocators of capital and through his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) holding company he has outperformed the S&P over long stretches, compounding his returns to become worth an estimated $73 Billion dollars as one of the richest men on the planet.

Starting in 2000 you are given $100k, who would you invest in, Belichick or Buffett?

The returns for Buffet will be the total return of Berkshire Hathaway A shares (BRK.A).  The returns for Belichick will be betting on the Patriots every week, calculated using -110 odds and a 3% unit sizing throughout (assuming a half-Kelly of a 55% expected ATS win rate, Belichick has been 59% ATS through 17 years).

Returns of Buffett (BRK.A) vs. Belichick (Patriots)


Results
Buffett wins by turning $100k into $445k, while Belichick would have turned that same amount into a more than respectable, $373k.  The S&P (Total Return) would currently leave you with $127k.

Caveats to consider:

  • With Belichick you are only investing 17-21 weeks out of the year (the length of the NFL season), so you have 100% dry powder for 2/3 of the year (which should be invested in other vehicles).
  • Buffett max drawdown was a loss of -52%, losing ~$145k
  • Belichick max drawdown was a loss of -27%, losing $66k
    • Started during the 2007 undefeated regular season as market expectations quickly caught up to a dominant Pats team that started that season going 8-0 SU and ATS, New England would finish the season from week 9 on with a 2-9 ATS mark, even though they would go 10-1 SU, eventually losing the Super Bowl to the Giants.  From 2007 Week 10 to 2008 Week 14, Belichick would go 8-16 ATS for the worst Patriots ATS stretch.
  • Past performance is NOT a predictor of future results

2016-2017 NFL Best Bets 100-68 (59.5%) – 66-26 (71.7%) on NFL Sides
NFL Best Bets are now 5-2 in the playoffs

2016-2017  NFL Strong Opinions are 63-52-4 (54.8%) 

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