Game Analysis

Lean – Over (41.5) – LAS VEGAS (-4.5) vs Tennessee

• Geno Smith is averaging -0.05 EPA/play (30th), and there’s not much hope for improvement as the Raiders will again be without their best two players on offense.
• Las Vegas LT Kolton Miller ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency, but he is out, and his backup Stone Forsythe surrendered 4 pressures last week (9th-most).
• Brock Bowers was gaining 1.94 yards per route run (4th) despite playing through a PCL injury and a bone bruise in his left knee, but they’ve decided to rest him so it can heal.
• The Raiders’ interior offensive line is responsible for 52% of the allowed pressures (26th), and they will struggle against IDL Jeffery Simmons, who leads the league with 24 pressures.
• Las Vegas is conceding -0.18 EPA/rush (7th), and they are going to make Cam Ward win this game with his arm. Ward only had a 43% success rate in week 5 (4th-worst) despite getting his first win.
• Ward is targeting his wide receivers on 66% of his passes (6th-most), which is a favorable matchup as the Raiders are surrendering a 58% success rate to opposing wide receivers (29th), but they might get back starting CB Eric Stokes.
• The major problem with Tennessee’s offense is backup RT Olisaemeka Udoh, who ranks 56th in pass blocking efficiency out of 59 qualifying tackles and could struggle across from Pro Bowl edge rusher Maxx Crosby, but there is a real possibility that starting right tackle JC Latham will be back on the field this week.
• Our model makes Las Vegas a 4.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 44.5 points. I used the Raiders -4.5 in my spread pool, as there could be a bit of a letdown for Tennessee following their first win (the Titans apply to a 17-43-4 ATS team off their first win angle).