I have been a professional sports handicapper for 23 years, winning 57% of my College Football Best Bets, 55% of my NFL Best Bets and 55% of my Basketball Best Bets in my career. While odds makers have gotten more sophisticated over time, I have also continued to improve my methods and to win at a profitable rate. In the past I have recommended wagering 2.0% of your initial bankroll per Star on my Football Best Bets, 1.5% of your initial bankroll per Star in Basketball, and wagering 1.6% in Football and 1.2% in Basketball when using the Combo Package. Over the last ten years, my Football / Basketball Combo package has averaged a 70.9% return on investment with a standard deviation of 92.4%.

Football / Basketball Combo Package

1999-00	+162.6%
2000-01	+140.2%
2001-02	+165.2%
2002-03	-49.7%
2003-04	+62.9%
2004-05	+81.6%
2005-06	+210.7%
2006-07	-1.1%
2007-08	-77.4%
2008-09	+34.8%
2009-10	+50.1%
Average	+70.9%

Football

1999-00	+111.4%
2000-01	+132.2%
2001-02	+51.4%
2002-03	+19.6%
2003-04	-100%
2004-05	+115.4%
2005-06	+95.4%
2006-07	+8.4%
2007-08	-80.6%
2008-09	+50.8%
2009-10	+1.6%
Average	+36.9%

Basketball

In Basketball, I have averaged a 53% ROI with a standard deviation of 90.3%.

1999-00	+91.8%
2000-01	+43.1%
2001-02	+155.1%
2002-03	-81.8%
2003-04	+199.1%
2004-05	-13.4%
2005-06	+168%
2006-07	-9.8%
2007-08	-16.2%
2008-09	-7.4%
2009-10	+53.3%
Average	+52.9%

These returns are all well in excess of what you can earn in any conventional financial market, with Sharpe Ratios (which describe risk-adjusted return) almost double that of the S&P 500.

1999-2010 Seasons

While there are natural swings in variance over a ten year period, the three graphs (below) of my historical results demonstrates the continuous upward trend of my investments. Keep in mind that this graph has already factored in 10% juice. The vertical axis represents the number of percentage points that I am up, while the horizontal axis is time measured from 1999 to the present.

1999-2010 Seasons	5-Star W/L/P*	4-Star W/L/P	3-Star W/L/P	2-Star W/L/P	Strong Op.** W/L/P	Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P
NCAA Football	2-0-0	24-20-0	195-145-9	268-213-10	371-300-8	1227-941-47
NFL Football	0-0-0	20-10-3	160-131-9	177-195-8	199-172-7	914-823-55
NCAA Basketball	0-0-0	48-55-3	654-527-26	854-748-30	0-0-0	3862-3297-150
NBA Basketball	0-0-0	18-15-1	273-234-16	502-411-14	0-0-0	1895-1584-80
Total	2-0-0	110-100-7	1282-1037-60	1801-1567-62	570-472-15	7898-6645-332

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis
***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
Includes Football season win totals (over/unders), 3-0 in 2008 and 3-0 in 2009 (all 2-Stars).

2009-2010 Season

Last season was solidly profitable overall but a bit below average for me, as I was up 51% overall with my combined bets for basketball and football after factoring in 10% juice. Football season got off to a rocky start, and I got extremely unlucky in my 4-star games, but I recovered in the second half and ended the season slightly above even at +1.6%. Those who stuck with me were rewarded when I performed up to my normal standards during basketball season, ending the year up 53% for basketball.

The reason that these numbers don't add up exactly is that I have been recommending 2% per star in Football, 1.5% per star in Basketball and 1.6 and 1.4% per star respectively when using the combo package. Thus, the Football star to Basketball star ratio is slightly different when using the combo package, so the combo package is not always the product of the two individual sports. The reasons why I do this are explained in the Money Management articles, and it has to do with variance and simultaneous events.

2009-2010 Season	5-Star W/L/P*	4-Star W/L/P	3-Star W/L/P	2-Star W/L/P	Strong Op.** W/L/P	Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P
NCAA Football	0-0-0	2-3-0	16-16-1	19-14-1	44-34-0	94-88-5
NFL Football	0-0-0	0-0-0	4-2-0	9-9-0	23-26-1	30-24-0
NCAA Basketball	0-0-0	1-1-0	42-41-1	79-59-3	0-0-0	288-245-9
NBA Basketball	0-0-0	0-0-0	40-36-2	78-56-0	0-0-0	138-110-3
Total	0-0-0	3-4-0	102-95-4	185-138-3	67-60-1	550-467-17

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis
***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
Includes Football season win totals (over/unders), 1-0 in NFL and 2-0 in College (all 2-Stars).

2008-2009 Season

I had a successful season in 2008-2009 and I was up a very solid 35% overall after factoring in juice. I was up 51% in Football and down 7% in Basketball. It's also worth mentioning that while a 35% ROI is spectacular when compared to even the best years of the stock, real estate, currencies or commodities markets, it's particularly satisfying in a year like 2008, where many of those markets lost half of their value or more. In some of my Advanced Topics articles, I discuss why this is one of the many reasons that Sports Betting is a great way to diversify your portfolio.

2008-2009 Season	5-Star W/L/P*			4-Star W/L/P			3-Star W/L/P			2-Star W/L/P			Strong Op.** W/L/P			Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P
NCAA Football	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	47	30	1	112	78	11
NFL Football	0	0	0	1	0	0	12	8	0	9	12	0	20	10	2	58	48	0
NCAA Basketball	0	0	0	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1				293	259	11
NBA Basketball	0	0	0	2	0	0	19	18	0	27	33	0				119	120	0
Total	0	0	0	7	2	0	108	83	6	115	124	2	67	40	3	582	505	22

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis
***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
Includes Football season win totals (over/unders), 3-0 in NFL and 0-0 in College (all 2-Stars).

2007-2008 Season

2007-2008 was my worst year to date, and the only year I've had losing seasons in both football and basketball. I had exceptionally bad luck in close games, and experienced results that were about two standard deviations below normal. However, seasons as bad as this (and as good as 2005) are to be expected to happen around once every 20 years. Given that I've been handicapping since 1987, these results are actually fairly unsurprising. What is significant is that I won at a solid rate both before this season and again in 2008-2009, meaning that we can safely attribute these results to simple variance. I finished the year down 81% in football, 16% in basketball, and 77% overall.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2006-2007 Season

My 2006-2007 season was about break even, and I ran about one standard deviation below expectation. I finished up 8% in football, but down 10% in basketball and 1% overall. Similar to my 2007-2008 season, I had a very unlucky record in close games ('coin flips') which dragged down my overall percentage.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2005-2006 Season

In 2005-2006, I ran well above expectation (one and a half to two standard deviations) the entire season, producing a winning record that was so far off the charts, it had ESPN and The Wall Street Journal predicting the downfall of Vegas. I knew better, of course, and sent a letter to all of my subscribers warning them that I was running above expectation and to continue to pursue the investment strategies that they had outlined in the beginning of the season. I am a lifetime 56-57% winner, and most of my seasons are between 53% and 60%. Sometimes I get unlucky (2007) and run poorly for a couple hundred games, and sometimes I get lucky like I did this year and run very well. It's important not to go crazy over variance and to remember that no matter what's happened recently, my future expectation is that I will win around 56-57%.

I was up 211% combined (more than tripling the initial investment) and up 168% in basketball and up 95% in football. If investors had been pursuing an optimal growth strategy where they adjust their wager sizes each week (the pros and cons of which are discussed extensively in the Money Management section), they would have earned a 544% return in one year.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2004-2005 Season

I had another great year in 2004, showing an 82% return for the Combo package. This was thanks to my second-best ever Football season, where I was up 115%, although I was down 13% in Basketball. This is a pretty 'average' season for me - above expectation in some areas, below in others, with an overall return of about 70-80% when all is said and done.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2003-2004 Season

This season was one of my better seasons, and I ended up 63% in the Combo package. It's also a very clear reminder of why you should stick to the plan and not panic. I had my worst run in any sport over 22 years in Football, and actually ran all the way down 100%. If investors had given up or jumped ship because of an extremely negative-variance run, they would've missed out on my single best run in 22 years in Basketball, where I started out hot and stayed that way the entire season, ending up at a jaw dropping plus 199%.

I know that I may start to sound like a broken record, but I ran well below expectation in Football, and way above expectation in Basketball. Swings like this are a natural part of variance, and bettors who all of a sudden quit following me in Football the next year but doubled their investments in Basketball were just reacting to short term volatility - as you just saw above, my 2004 season was basically the opposite of this one, with Football having a great year and Basketball running poorly. The one similarity: positive overall returns in the long run and continued positive future expectation..

Also, you should note that a Football-only bettor would have been down 100%, a Basketball-only bettor would have been up 199%, and a Combo-package bettor would have been fine. The reason is because the unit sizes for the Combo bettors are smaller, so they wouldn't have lost as much during the beginning of Football season, and then the overlap between Football and Basketball would have been a break-even period for them. Combo bettors would've ended up plus 63% on the year.

This is also a great example of a time when re-sizing bets would've been very beneficial. While this bettor would've been up 42% at the end of the year instead of 63%, they would've done so with a much milder downswing.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2002-2003 Season

The 2002 Season was about one and a half standard deviations below average, and my second worst of the last ten years. I was up 20% in Football, but down 82% in Basketball and down 50% overall. It's worth noting that both the three seasons before 2002 and the three seasons after were all hugely positive, and to keep in mind that really good and really bad seasons are all a natural part of variance.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2001-2002 Season

In the 2001 Season, I experienced remarkably steady upward growth. Lines this smooth are pretty unusual, and while it might sound cryptic, there is a of course variance in the variance - some years have tons of swings and others have very little. I posted great results across the board, gaining 51% in Football, 155% in Basketball and 165% in the Combo package.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

2000-2001 Season

Like 2001, my 2000 season showed pretty smooth growth, especially in Football. Basketball started off really hot, but then cooled off in the second half of the year. This was my best year in Football out of the last 10, and I definitely ran well above expectation. I was up 132% in Football, 43% in Basketball and 140% in the Combo package.

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

1999-2000 Season

I was up 111% in Football, 92% in Basketball and 163% in Combo - I ran well above expectation both in terms of having such high returns, as well as in terms of achieving them with such nominal swings. Years like 1999 and 2005 are dream seasons, where everything breaks your way, but it's important not to get too carried away and over bet or risk more than you can afford!

*Wins / Losses / Pushes

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis

***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.

Year by Year Summaries

NCAA Football

NCAA FB	5-Star W/L/P*			4-Star W/L/P			3-Star W/L/P			2-Star W/L/P			Strong Op.** W/L/P			Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P
1999-00	0	0	0	1	0	0	23	9	0	25	22	1	0	0	0	123	71	2
2000-01	0	0	0	2	1	0	16	8	0	29	16	0	0	0	0	114	60	0
2001-02	0	0	0	0	2	0	13	7	0	22	19	0	38	31	2	83	67	0
2002-03	0	0	0	3	1	0	17	20	1	29	23	2	36	38	3	121	110	7
2003-04	0	0	0	1	2	0	16	17	1	29	36	1	43	29	1	110	131	5
2004-05	0	0	0	0	1	0	21	17	0	34	16	1	44	24	0	131	87	2
2005-06	1	0	0	5	2	0	21	3	1	24	16	1	39	27	0	136	49	5
2006-07	1	0	0	7	3	0	18	15	1	19	16	2	37	39	1	125	89	7
2007-08	0	0	0	1	5	0	12	17	1	19	20	0	43	48	0	78	111	3
2008-09	0	0	0	2	0	0	22	16	3	19	15	1	47	30	1	112	78	11
2009-10	0	0	0	2	3	0	16	16	1	19	14	1	44	34	0	94	88	5
L11 Years	2	0	0	24	20	0	195	145	9	268	213	10	371	300	8	1227	941	47

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis
***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
Includes Football Season Win totals (over/unders), 0-0 in 2008 and 2-0 in 2009 (all 2-Stars).

NFL Football

NFL FB	4-Star W/L/P			3-Star W/L/P			2-Star W/L/P			Strong Op.** W/L/P			Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P
1999-00	2	2	0	18	8	0	25	30	1	0	0	0	112	92	2
2000-01	4	2	1	15	11	1	22	19	1	0	0	0	105	79	9
2001-02	1	1	1	17	12	1	17	13	2	20	18	0	89	66	11
2002-03	3	1	0	20	12	2	25	31	1	25	14	1	122	102	8
2003-04	3	1	0	16	23	1	18	19	0	16	17	0	96	111	3
2004-05	1	1	1	21	10	0	14	16	1	30	23	2	95	66	6
2005-06	2	0	0	12	20	1	13	17	1	19	29	0	70	94	5
2006-07	2	2	0	14	17	2	13	15	1	22	15	1	76	89	8
2007-08	1	0	0	11	8	1	12	14	0	24	20	0	61	52	3
2008-09	1	0	0	12	8	0	9	12	0	20	10	2	58	48	0
2009-10	0	0	0	4	2	0	9	9	0	23	26	1	30	24	0
L11 Years	20	10	3	160	131	9	177	195	8	199	172	7	914	823	55

**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis
***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
Includes Football Season Win totals (over/unders), 3-0 in 2008 and 1-0 in 2009 (all 2-Stars).

NCAA Basketball

NCAA BB	4-Star W/L/P*			3-Star W/L/P			2-Star W/L/P			Total/Star Basis** W/L/P
1999-00	8	5	0	47	35	4	52	54	2	277	233	16
2000-01	1	1	0	45	53	0	92	61	3	323	285	6
2001-02	2	2	0	48	29	2	102	85	3	356	265	12
2002-03	5	5	0	74	68	4	85	80	5	412	384	22
2003-04	5	4	1	76	48	4	114	86	5	476	332	26
2004-05	8	11	1	68	61	2	79	79	3	394	385	16
2005-06	2	8	0	76	47	1	85	59	1	406	291	5
2006-07	10	10	0	62	46	1	51	57	1	328	292	5
2007-08	4	6	1	61	58	4	55	64	3	309	326	22
2008-09	2	2	0	55	41	3	60	64	1	293	259	11
2009-10	1	1	0	42	41	1	79	59	2	288	245	9
L11 Years	48	55	3	654	527	26	854	748	29	3862	3297	150