Past Performance
I currently recommend wagering 2.0% of your initial bankroll per Star on my Football Best Bets, 1.5% of your initial bankroll per Star in Basketball, and wagering 1.6% in Football and 1.4% in Basketball when using the Combo Package (from 1999-00 through 2008-09 I recommended 1.2% per star in basketball with the combo package and the return on investment percentages for those years reflect that). Over the last twelve years, my Football / Basketball Combo package has averaged a 60.5% return on investment with a standard deviation of 90.2%.
- Notes for charts below:
- All records shown as Win-Loss-Push.
- Opinions ("Strong Opinions") are not included in Total Stars Calculations.
- Total Stars is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value. So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
- Win% is Stars Won/(Stars Won + Stars Lost)
- Net Stars is Stars Won - 1.1 * Stars Lost + Props/Futures
College Football Records
| NCAA FB | 5-Star | 4-Star | 3-Star | 2-Star | Opinions | Total Stars | Win% | Props/Futures | Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 23-9-0 | 25-22-1 | 0-0-0 | 123-71-2 | 63.4 | 0.0 | + 44.9 |
| 2000-01 | 0-0-0 | 2-1-0 | 16-8-0 | 29-16-0 | 0-0-0 | 114-60-0 | 65.5 | 0.0 | + 48.0 |
| 2001-02 | 0-0-0 | 0-2-0 | 13-7-0 | 22-19-0 | 38-31-2 | 83-67-0 | 55.3 | 0.0 | + 9.3 |
| 2002-03 | 0-0-0 | 3-1-0 | 17-20-1 | 29-23-2 | 36-38-3 | 121-110-7 | 52.4 | 0.0 | -0.0 |
| 2003-04 | 0-0-0 | 1-2-0 | 16-17-1 | 29-36-1 | 43-29-1 | 110-131-5 | 45.6 | 0.0 | -34.1 |
| 2004-05 | 0-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 21-17-0 | 34-16-1 | 44-24-0 | 131-87-2 | 60.1 | 0.0 | + 35.3 |
| 2005-06 | 1-0-0 | 5-2-0 | 21-3-1 | 24-16-1 | 39-27-0 | 136-49-5 | 73.5 | 0.0 | + 82.1 |
| 2006-07 | 1-0-0 | 7-3-0 | 18-15-1 | 19-16-2 | 37-39-1 | 125-89-7 | 58.4 | 0.0 | + 27.1 |
| 2007-08 | 0-0-0 | 1-5-0 | 12-17-1 | 19-20-0 | 43-48-0 | 78-111-3 | 41.3 | 0.0 | -44.1 |
| 2008-09 | 0-0-0 | 2-0-0 | 22-16-3 | 19-15-1 | 47-30-1 | 112-78-11 | 58.9 | 0.0 | + 26.2 |
| 2009-10 | 0-0-0 | 2-3-0 | 16-16-1 | 17-14-1 | 44-34-0 | 90-88-5 | 50.6 | +4.0 | -2.8 |
| 2010-11 | 0-0-0 | 3-2-0 | 15-14-0 | 28-18-1 | 37-44-2 | 113-86-2 | 56.8 | +0.9 | + 19.3 |
| 2011-12 | 0-0-0 | 0-2-0 | 14-16-0 | 28-23-1 | 36-37-0 | 98-102-2 | 49.0 | +12.9 | -1.3 |
| 2012-13 | 0-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 19-8-0 | 28-26-0 | 31-33-0 | 113-80-0 | 58.5 | -9.3 | + 15.7 |
| L14 Years | 2-0-0 | 27-25-0 | 243-183-9 | 350-280-12 | 475-414-10 | 1547-1209-51 | 56.1 | +8.5 | +225.6 |
NFL Records
| NFL | 4-Star | 3-Star | 2-Star | Opinions | Total Stars | Win% | Props/Futures | Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 2-2-0 | 18-8-0 | 25-30-1 | 0-0-0 | 112-92-2 | 54.9 | 0.0 | + 10.8 |
| 2000-01 | 4-2-1 | 15-11-1 | 22-19-1 | 0-0-0 | 105-79-9 | 57.1 | 0.0 | + 18.1 |
| 2001-02 | 1-1-1 | 17-12-1 | 17-13-2 | 28-18-0 | 89-66-11 | 57.4 | 0.0 | + 16.4 |
| 2002-03 | 3-1-0 | 20-12-2 | 25-31-1 | 25-14-1 | 122-102-8 | 54.5 | 0.0 | + 9.8 |
| 2003-04 | 3-1-0 | 16-23-1 | 18-19-0 | 16-17-0 | 96-111-3 | 46.4 | 0.0 | -26.1 |
| 2004-05 | 1-1-1 | 21-10-0 | 14-16-1 | 30-23-2 | 95-66-6 | 59.0 | 0.0 | + 22.4 |
| 2005-06 | 2-0-0 | 12-20-1 | 13-17-1 | 19-29-0 | 70-94-5 | 42.7 | 0.0 | -33.4 |
| 2006-07 | 2-2-0 | 14-17-2 | 13-15-1 | 22-15-1 | 76-89-8 | 46.1 | 0.0 | -21.9 |
| 2007-08 | 1-0-0 | 11-8-1 | 12-14-0 | 24-20-0 | 61-52-3 | 54.0 | 0.0 | + 3.8 |
| 2008-09 | 1-0-0 | 12-8-0 | 6-12-0 | 20-10-2 | 52-48-0 | 52.0 | +5.3 | + 4.5 |
| 2009-10 | 0-0-0 | 4-2-0 | 8-9-0 | 23-26-1 | 28-24-0 | 53.8 | +2.0 | + 3.6 |
| 2010-11 | 0-0-0 | 5-8-0 | 10-14-0 | 20-21-1 | 35-52-0 | 40.2 | 0.0 | -22.2 |
| 2011-12 | 0-0-0 | 4-3-0 | 14-17-1 | 28-10-0 | 40-43-2 | 48.2 | 0.0 | -7.3 |
| 2012-13 | 0-0-0 | 9-10-0 | 12-14-1 | 14-25-0 | 51-58-2 | 46.8 | -1.9 | -14.7 |
| L14 Years | 20-10-3 | 178-152-9 | 209-240-10 | 269-228-8 | 1032-976-59 | 51.4 | +5.4 | -36.2 |
College Basketball Records
| NCAA BB | 4-Star | 3-Star | 2-Star | Opinions | Total Stars | Win% | Props/Futures | Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 8-5-0 | 47-35-4 | 52-54-2 | 0-0-0 | 277-233-16 | 54.3 | 0.0 | + 20.7 |
| 2000-01 | 1-1-0 | 45-53-0 | 92-61-3 | 0-0-0 | 323-285-6 | 53.1 | 0.0 | + 9.5 |
| 2001-02 | 2-2-0 | 48-29-2 | 102-85-3 | 0-0-0 | 356-265-12 | 57.3 | 0.0 | + 64.5 |
| 2002-03 | 5-5-0 | 74-68-4 | 85-80-5 | 0-0-0 | 412-384-22 | 51.8 | 0.0 | -10.4 |
| 2003-04 | 5-4-1 | 76-48-4 | 114-86-5 | 0-0-0 | 476-332-26 | 58.9 | 0.0 | +110.8 |
| 2004-05 | 8-11-1 | 68-61-2 | 79-79-3 | 0-0-0 | 394-385-16 | 50.6 | 0.0 | -29.5 |
| 2005-06 | 2-8-0 | 76-47-1 | 85-59-1 | 0-0-0 | 406-291-5 | 58.2 | 0.0 | + 85.9 |
| 2006-07 | 10-10-0 | 62-46-1 | 51-57-1 | 0-0-0 | 328-292-5 | 52.9 | 0.0 | + 6.8 |
| 2007-08 | 4-6-1 | 61-58-4 | 55-64-3 | 0-0-0 | 309-326-22 | 48.7 | 0.0 | -49.6 |
| 2008-09 | 2-2-0 | 55-41-3 | 60-64-1 | 0-0-0 | 293-259-11 | 53.1 | 0.0 | + 8.1 |
| 2009-10 | 1-1-0 | 42-41-1 | 79-59-2 | 0-0-0 | 288-245-7 | 54.0 | 0.0 | + 18.5 |
| 2010-11 | 2-2-0 | 40-40-2 | 81-56-2 | 0-0-0 | 290-240-10 | 54.7 | 0.0 | + 26.0 |
| 2011-12 | 2-3-0 | 59-56-1 | 97-77-3 | 0-0-0 | 379-334-9 | 53.2 | 0.0 | + 11.6 |
| 2012-13 | 6-1-0 | 70-53-1 | 122-130-2 | 0-0-0 | 478-423-7 | 53.1 | 0.0 | + 12.7 |
| L14 Years | 58-61-3 | 823-676-30 | 1154-1011-36 | 0-0-0 | 5009-4294-174 | 53.8 | 0.0 | +285.6 |
NBA Basketball Records
| NBA | 4-Star | 3-Star | 2-Star | Opinions | Total Stars | Win% | Props/Futures | Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-00 | 2-4-0 | 35-29-3 | 71-46-2 | 0-0-0 | 255-195-13 | 56.7 | 0.0 | + 40.5 |
| 2000-01 | 2-3-0 | 22-16-3 | 76-64-3 | 0-0-0 | 226-188-15 | 54.6 | 0.0 | + 19.2 |
| 2001-02 | 1-2-0 | 23-15-1 | 55-39-2 | 0-0-0 | 183-131-7 | 58.3 | 0.0 | + 38.9 |
| 2002-03 | 2-1-0 | 31-29-1 | 38-55-1 | 0-0-0 | 177-201-5 | 46.8 | 0.0 | -44.1 |
| 2003-04 | 2-1-0 | 24-21-1 | 54-42-4 | 0-0-0 | 188-151-11 | 55.5 | 0.0 | + 21.9 |
| 2004-05 | 2-1-0 | 28-24-3 | 38-29-0 | 0-0-0 | 168-134-9 | 55.6 | 0.0 | + 20.6 |
| 2005-06 | 3-1-1 | 20-21-1 | 48-31-2 | 0-0-0 | 168-129-11 | 56.6 | 0.0 | + 26.1 |
| 2006-07 | 2-0-0 | 22-25-2 | 24-24-0 | 0-0-0 | 122-123-6 | 49.8 | 0.0 | -13.3 |
| 2007-08 | 0-2-0 | 29-18-0 | 32-20-0 | 0-0-0 | 151-102-0 | 59.7 | 0.0 | + 38.8 |
| 2008-09 | 2-0-0 | 19-18-0 | 27-33-0 | 0-0-0 | 119-120-0 | 49.8 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| 2009-10 | 0-0-0 | 20-18-1 | 39-28-0 | 0-0-0 | 138-110-3 | 55.6 | 0.0 | + 17.0 |
| 2010-11 | 1-0-0 | 19-13-0 | 40-48-3 | 0-0-0 | 141-135-6 | 51.1 | +11.0 | + 3.5 |
| 2011-12 | 0-0-0 | 12-14-0 | 36-42-1 | 0-0-0 | 108-126-2 | 46.2 | -1.8 | -32.4 |
| 2012-13 | 0-0-0 | 18-13-0 | 51-39-3 | 0-0-0 | 156-117-6 | 57.1 | +2.4 | + 29.7 |
| L14 Years | 19-15-1 | 322-274-16 | 629-540-21 | 0-0-0 | 2300-1962-94 | 54.0 | +11.6 | +153.4 |
Summary
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| 2012-13 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 9-10-0 | 12-14-1 | 14-25-0 | 51-58-2 | -1.9 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 19-8-0 | 28-26-0 | 31-33-0 | 113-80-0 | -9.3 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 18-13-0 | 51-39-3 | 0-0-0 | 156-117-6 | +2.4 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 6-1-0 | 70-53-1 | 122-130-2 | 0-0-0 | 478-423-7 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 6-2-0 | 116-84-1 | 213-209-6 | 45-58-0 | 798-678-15 | -8.8 |
**Strong Opinions are not included in the Total/Star Basis
***Total/Star Basis is computed by multiplying each bet by its star value.
So if you win a 4-Star and two 2-Stars, and lose a 3-Star and a 2-Star, then you have
gone 8-5 on a Star basis.
2011-12 Season
The 2011-2012 season was one of my worst in 25 years, as I was an unprofitable 51.3% on all Best Bets in football and basketball combined (266-253-7) and had a worse record on my higher rated plays than I did on my 2-Star Best Bets. I was profitable again on my futures/prop bets (+12.9 Stars in football and -1.8 Stars in Basketball), which helped a bit, but overall I was -8.6 Stars in Football (a -17.2% ROI) and -20.8 Stars in Basketball (-31.2% ROI) at -110 odds.
My Basketball handicapping was certainly off, perhaps due to the NBA situations not working at all in the strange scheduling of the shortened season (I was 158-136-4 on College Best Bets but only 48-56-1 in the NBA), but my handicapping in football was actually good and the losing season can be chalked up to negative variance. My College Football Best Bets were only 42-41-1 thanks in large part to a -19 in fumble margin on my Best Bets, which is completely random. Despite the bad luck with fumbles I still had an average line differential of +1.8 points (normally good enough for about 55% winners) but a bad record on close games also contributed to a down season. My NFL methods and new math model also worked well, as I was 144-102-6 ATS (59%) picking every NFL side (with 15 no opinions) and 28-10 on my Strong Opinions. Unfortunately, my NFL Best Bets were only 18-20-1, which is pretty random given how well my methods worked overall and on the games that were in contention for being Best Bets (I was 46-30-1 on the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined).
I've had seasons (2005 in particular) when my record was better than it should have been because of positive variance but this past football season saw the most negative variance I've ever experienced and I was still barely unprofitable, which bodes well for the future.
Overall, it was a -42.9% return on investment for the Football-Basketball Combo package, which was my worst since 2007-08.
However, after my bad year in 2007-08 I rebounded with 3 straight solidly profitable years (+43.2%, +51.0%, and +36.7%) and after a -49.7% year in 2002-03 I exploded for huge profits the next 3 years (+62.9%, +81.6%, and +212.3%). One down year has proven not to be an indication of future problems and I expect to bounce back again in 2012-2013.
| 2011-12 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 4-3-0 | 14-17-1 | 28-10-0 | 40-43-2 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 0-2-0 | 14-16-0 | 28-23-1 | 36-37-0 | 98-102-2 | +12.9 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 12-14-0 | 36-42-1 | 0-0-0 | 108-126-2 | -1.8 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 2-3-0 | 59-56-1 | 97-77-3 | 0-0-0 | 379-334-9 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 2-5-0 | 89-89-1 | 175-159-6 | 64-47-0 | 625-605-15 | +11.1 |
2010-2011 Season
My 2010-2011 season was profitable, registering a 35.2% return on investment overall, but it was certainly a below average year thanks to a horrible NFL season plagued by close losses and a tally of -22.2 Stars. Thankfully, I had another very good College Football season at 57% on a Star basis and +18.4 Stars of profit. Overall, my Football Best Bets were down slightly at 148-138-2 on Stars, which is -3.8 Stars and a -7.6% ROI.
My Basketball season results were good, as I racked up 29.5 Stars of profit, which was a +44.3% return on investment at 1.5% of your initial bankroll per star.
The reason that these numbers don't add up exactly is that I have been recommending 2% per star in Football, 1.5% per star in Basketball and 1.6 and 1.4% per star respectively when using the combo package. Thus, the Football star to Basketball star ratio is slightly different when using the combo package, so the combo package is not always the product of the two individual sports. The reasons why I do this are explained in the Money Management articles, and it has to do with variance and simultaneous events.
| 2010-11 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 5-8-0 | 10-14-0 | 20-21-1 | 35-52-0 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 3-2-0 | 15-14-0 | 28-18-1 | 37-44-2 | 113-86-2 | +0.9 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 19-13-0 | 40-48-3 | 0-0-0 | 141-135-6 | +11.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 2-2-0 | 40-40-2 | 81-56-2 | 0-0-0 | 290-240-10 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 6-4-0 | 79-75-2 | 159-136-6 | 57-65-3 | 579-513-18 | +11.9 |
2009-2010 Season
This season was solidly profitable overall but a bit below average for me, as I was up 51% overall with my combined bets for basketball and football after factoring in 10% juice. Football season got off to a rocky start, and I got extremely unlucky in my 4-star games, but I recovered in the second half and ended the season slightly above even at +1.6%. Those who stuck with me were rewarded when I performed up to my normal standards during basketball season, ending the year up 53% for basketball.
The reason that these numbers don't add up exactly is that I have been recommending 2% per star in Football, 1.5% per star in Basketball and 1.6 and 1.4% per star respectively when using the combo package. Thus, the Football star to Basketball star ratio is slightly different when using the combo package, so the combo package is not always the product of the two individual sports. The reasons why I do this are explained in the Money Management articles, and it has to do with variance and simultaneous events.
| 2009-10 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 4-2-0 | 8-9-0 | 23-26-1 | 28-24-0 | +2.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 2-3-0 | 16-16-1 | 17-14-1 | 44-34-0 | 90-88-5 | +4.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | 20-18-1 | 39-28-0 | 0-0-0 | 138-110-3 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 1-1-0 | 42-41-1 | 79-59-2 | 0-0-0 | 288-245-7 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 3-4-0 | 82-77-3 | 143-110-3 | 67-60-1 | 544-467-15 | +6.0 |
2008-2009 Season
I had a successful season in 2008-2009 and I was up a very solid 35% overall after factoring in juice. I was up 51% in Football and down 7% in Basketball. It's also worth mentioning that while a 35% ROI is spectacular when compared to even the best years of the stock, real estate, currencies or commodities markets, it's particularly satisfying in a year like 2008, where many of those markets lost half of their value or more. In some of my Advanced Topics articles, I discuss why this is one of the many reasons that Sports Betting is a great way to diversify your portfolio.
| 2008-09 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 12-8-0 | 6-12-0 | 20-10-2 | 52-48-0 | +5.3 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 2-0-0 | 22-16-3 | 19-15-1 | 47-30-1 | 112-78-11 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-0-0 | 19-18-0 | 27-33-0 | 0-0-0 | 119-120-0 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 2-2-0 | 55-41-3 | 60-64-1 | 0-0-0 | 293-259-11 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 7-2-0 | 108-83-6 | 112-124-2 | 67-40-3 | 576-505-22 | +5.3 |
2007-2008 Season
2007-2008 was my worst year to date, and the only year I've had losing seasons in both football and basketball. I had exceptionally bad luck in close games, and experienced results that were about two standard deviations below normal. However, seasons as bad as this (and as good as 2005) are to be expected to happen around once every 20 years. Given that I've been handicapping since 1987, these results are actually fairly unsurprising. What is significant is that I won at a solid rate both before this season and again in 2008-2009, meaning that we can safely attribute these results to simple variance. I finished the year down 81% in football, 16% in basketball, and 77% overall.
| 2007-08 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 11-8-1 | 12-14-0 | 24-20-0 | 61-52-3 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 1-5-0 | 12-17-1 | 19-20-0 | 43-48-0 | 78-111-3 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 0-2-0 | 29-18-0 | 32-20-0 | 0-0-0 | 151-102-0 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 4-6-1 | 61-58-4 | 55-64-3 | 0-0-0 | 309-326-22 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 6-13-1 | 113-101-6 | 118-118-3 | 67-68-0 | 599-591-28 | 0.0 |
2006-2007 Season
My 2006-2007 season was about break even, and I ran about one standard deviation below expectation. I finished up 8% in football, but down 10% in basketball and 1% overall. Similar to my 2007-2008 season, I had a very unlucky record in close games ('coin flips') which dragged down my overall percentage.
| 2006-07 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 2-2-0 | 14-17-2 | 13-15-1 | 22-15-1 | 76-89-8 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 1-0-0 | 7-3-0 | 18-15-1 | 19-16-2 | 37-39-1 | 125-89-7 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-0-0 | 22-25-2 | 24-24-0 | 0-0-0 | 122-123-6 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 10-10-0 | 62-46-1 | 51-57-1 | 0-0-0 | 328-292-5 | 0.0 |
| Total | 1-0-0 | 21-15-0 | 116-103-6 | 107-112-4 | 59-54-2 | 651-593-26 | 0.0 |
2005-2006 Season
In 2005-2006, I ran well above expectation (one and a half to two standard deviations) the entire season, producing a winning record that was so far off the charts, it had ESPN and The Wall Street Journal predicting the downfall of Vegas. I knew better, of course, and sent a letter to all of my subscribers warning them that I was running above expectation and to continue to pursue the investment strategies that they had outlined in the beginning of the season. I am a lifetime 56-57% winner, and most of my seasons are between 53% and 60%. Sometimes I get unlucky (2007) and run poorly for a couple hundred games, and sometimes I get lucky like I did this year and run very well. It's important not to go crazy over variance and to remember that no matter what's happened recently, my future expectation is that I will win around 56-57%.
I was up 211% combined (more than tripling the initial investment) and up 168% in basketball and up 95% in football. If investors had been pursuing an optimal growth strategy where they adjust their wager sizes each week (the pros and cons of which are discussed extensively in the Money Management section), they would have earned a 544% return in one year.
| 2005-06 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 2-0-0 | 12-20-1 | 13-17-1 | 19-29-0 | 70-94-5 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 1-0-0 | 5-2-0 | 21-3-1 | 24-16-1 | 39-27-0 | 136-49-5 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 3-1-1 | 20-21-1 | 48-31-2 | 0-0-0 | 168-129-11 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 2-8-0 | 76-47-1 | 85-59-1 | 0-0-0 | 406-291-5 | 0.0 |
| Total | 1-0-0 | 12-11-1 | 129-91-4 | 170-123-5 | 58-56-0 | 780-563-26 | 0.0 |
2004-2005 Season
I had another great year in 2004, showing an 82% return for the Combo package. This was thanks to my second-best ever Football season, where I was up 115%, although I was down 13% in Basketball. This is a pretty 'average' season for me - above expectation in some areas, below in others, with an overall return of about 70-80% when all is said and done.
| 2004-05 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 1-1-1 | 21-10-0 | 14-16-1 | 30-23-2 | 95-66-6 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 0-1-0 | 21-17-0 | 34-16-1 | 44-24-0 | 131-87-2 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-1-0 | 28-24-3 | 38-29-0 | 0-0-0 | 168-134-9 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 8-11-1 | 68-61-2 | 79-79-3 | 0-0-0 | 394-385-16 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 11-14-2 | 138-112-5 | 165-140-5 | 74-47-2 | 788-672-33 | 0.0 |
2003-2004 Season
This season was one of my better seasons, and I ended up 63% in the Combo package. It's also a very clear reminder of why you should stick to the plan and not panic. I had my worst run in any sport over 22 years in Football, and actually ran all the way down 100%. If investors had given up or jumped ship because of an extremely negative-variance run, they would've missed out on my single best run in 22 years in Basketball, where I started out hot and stayed that way the entire season, ending up at a jaw dropping plus 199%.
I know that I may start to sound like a broken record, but I ran well below expectation in Football, and way above expectation in Basketball. Swings like this are a natural part of variance, and bettors who all of a sudden quit following me in Football the next year but doubled their investments in Basketball were just reacting to short term volatility - as you just saw above, my 2004 season was basically the opposite of this one, with Football having a great year and Basketball running poorly. The one similarity: positive overall returns in the long run and continued positive future expectation..
Also, you should note that a Football-only bettor would have been down 100%, a Basketball-only bettor would have been up 199%, and a Combo-package bettor would have been fine. The reason is because the unit sizes for the Combo bettors are smaller, so they wouldn't have lost as much during the beginning of Football season, and then the overlap between Football and Basketball would have been a break-even period for them. Combo bettors would've ended up plus 63% on the year.
This is also a great example of a time when re-sizing bets would've been very beneficial. While this bettor would've been up 42% at the end of the year instead of 63%, they would've done so with a much milder downswing.
| 2003-04 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 3-1-0 | 16-23-1 | 18-19-0 | 16-17-0 | 96-111-3 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 1-2-0 | 16-17-1 | 29-36-1 | 43-29-1 | 110-131-5 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-1-0 | 24-21-1 | 54-42-4 | 0-0-0 | 188-151-11 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 5-4-1 | 76-48-4 | 114-86-5 | 0-0-0 | 476-332-26 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 11-8-1 | 132-109-7 | 215-183-10 | 59-46-1 | 870-725-45 | 0.0 |
2002-2003 Season
The 2002 Season was about one and a half standard deviations below average, and my second worst of the last ten years. I was up 20% in Football, but down 82% in Basketball and down 50% overall. It's worth noting that both the three seasons before 2002 and the three seasons after were all hugely positive, and to keep in mind that really good and really bad seasons are all a natural part of variance.
| 2002-03 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 3-1-0 | 20-12-2 | 25-31-1 | 25-14-1 | 122-102-8 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 3-1-0 | 17-20-1 | 29-23-2 | 36-38-3 | 121-110-7 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-1-0 | 31-29-1 | 38-55-1 | 0-0-0 | 177-201-5 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 5-5-0 | 74-68-4 | 85-80-5 | 0-0-0 | 412-384-22 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 13-8-0 | 142-129-8 | 177-189-9 | 61-52-4 | 832-797-42 | 0.0 |
2001-2002 Season
In the 2001 Season, I experienced remarkably steady upward growth. Lines this smooth are pretty unusual, and while it might sound cryptic, there is a of course variance in the variance - some years have tons of swings and others have very little. I posted great results across the board, gaining 51% in Football, 155% in Basketball and 165% in the Combo package.
| 2001-02 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 1-1-1 | 17-12-1 | 17-13-2 | 28-18-0 | 89-66-11 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 0-2-0 | 13-7-0 | 22-19-0 | 38-31-2 | 83-67-0 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 1-2-0 | 23-15-1 | 55-39-2 | 0-0-0 | 183-131-7 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 2-2-0 | 48-29-2 | 102-85-3 | 0-0-0 | 356-265-12 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 4-7-1 | 101-63-4 | 196-156-7 | 66-49-2 | 711-529-30 | 0.0 |
2000-2001 Season
Like 2001, my 2000 season showed pretty smooth growth, especially in Football. Basketball started off really hot, but then cooled off in the second half of the year. This was my best year in Football out of the last 10, and I definitely ran well above expectation. I was up 132% in Football, 43% in Basketball and 140% in the Combo package.
| 2000-01 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 4-2-1 | 15-11-1 | 22-19-1 | 0-0-0 | 105-79-9 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 2-1-0 | 16-8-0 | 29-16-0 | 0-0-0 | 114-60-0 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-3-0 | 22-16-3 | 76-64-3 | 0-0-0 | 226-188-15 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 1-1-0 | 45-53-0 | 92-61-3 | 0-0-0 | 323-285-6 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 9-7-1 | 98-88-4 | 219-160-7 | 0-0-0 | 768-612-30 | 0.0 |
1999-2000 Season
I was up 111% in Football, 92% in Basketball and 163% in Combo - I ran well above expectation both in terms of having such high returns, as well as in terms of achieving them with such nominal swings. Years like 1999 and 2005 are dream seasons, where everything breaks your way, but it's important not to get too carried away and over bet or risk more than you can afford!
| 1999-00 Season | 5-Star W/L/P* |
4-Star W/L/P |
3-Star W/L/P |
2-Star W/L/P |
Strong Op.** W/L/P |
Total/Star Basis*** W/L/P |
Props/Futures Net Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 0-0-0 | 2-2-0 | 18-8-0 | 25-30-1 | 0-0-0 | 112-92-2 | 0.0 |
| College Football | 0-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 23-9-0 | 25-22-1 | 0-0-0 | 123-71-2 | 0.0 |
| NBA | 0-0-0 | 2-4-0 | 35-29-3 | 71-46-2 | 0-0-0 | 255-195-13 | 0.0 |
| NCAA Basketball | 0-0-0 | 8-5-0 | 47-35-4 | 52-54-2 | 0-0-0 | 277-233-16 | 0.0 |
| Total | 0-0-0 | 13-11-0 | 123-81-7 | 173-152-6 | 0-0-0 | 767-591-33 | 0.0 |