June 18, 2013

I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

My Thursday opinion on San Antonio is game 1 of the NBA Finals won. My Basketball Best Bets have won 12 of the last 16 weeks, which is what's really important to me, and I'm 25-18-1 on my Free Best Bets. However, it's been a strange losing season with the opinions, which are just 66-78-5 this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Tuesday NBA
San Antonio at MIAMI (-6.5)
The value is once again on the side of the Spurs, as my ratings favor Miami by just 5 ½ points even after assigning the extra point to the Heat for being the team off the loss. Despite the line value favoring the Spurs I am not going to go against Miami after a loss since the Heat are now 12-0 ATS following their last 12 losses with all 12 wins being by double-digit margins. I realize that some of you may be tempted to play Miami off a loss but 1 ½ points of line value favoring the Spurs is significant too. I have no opinion on the side.

UNDER (191.5) – San Antonio at MIAMI
The pace of the last two games has been faster and the total has gone up accordingly. My math now projects 190 total points using the average pace of the first 5 games, so the line is pretty fair. However, game 6 of the NBA finals is 9-4 Under and the last two games of a playoff series tend to go under (109-82-2 UNDER, which is 57%). That’s especially the case when two elite teams are playing each other (30-15 UNDER if both teams have a win percentage of .666 or higher). I’ll lean Under 190 points or higher.