Kent State (-3.0) 21 MIAMI OHIO 19
This defensive struggle should be pretty tightly contested and will probably come down to which interception prone quarterback throws the most picks. Kent has been 1.0 yards per play worse than average through 3 games while Miami’s defense has been 0.5 yppl worse than average, so the Redhawks have an advantage when Kent has the ball. Golden Flashes’ quarterback Spencer Keith has thrown 5 interceptions in 3 games and now has a 4.0% career interception rate, so Miami’s aggressive defense (6 interceptions in 4 games) should pick off 1 or 2 today. Miami-Ohio’s Zac Dysert is even worse than Keith when it comes to throwing interceptions, as he’s throw 6 this season and has a career pick rate of 4.2%. Dysert’s yards per pass play numbers aren’t too bad (0.6 yppp worse than average), but the Redhawks are a horrible running team (4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp) and there is no way that they’ll be able to run on Kent’s front wall (2.6 yprp allowed while holding Boston College and Penn State to just 3.4 yprp). Overall, Kent is a very good 0.9 yppl better than average defensively and limited Boston College and Penn State to 5.0 yppl and 25 points per game, so they should be able to contain Miami’s sub-par attack. My math model favors Kent by 2 ½ points so I’ll pass this game.
| GAME LOGS 2012 | RUSHING | PASSING | TOTAL | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Score | Spread | Atts | Yds | Ypr | Fum | Comp | Att | Yds | Int | Sac | Yppp | Yds | Yppl |
| 08/30/12 Towson | 41-21 | 0.0 W | 37/30 | 127/93 | 3.4/3.1 | 0/4 | 13/26 | 22/36 | 142/223 | 0/2 | 3/4 | 5.7/5.6 | 269/316 | 4.3/4.5 |
| 09/08/12 @ Kentucky | 14-47 | +6.5 L | 37/30 | 203/191 | 5.5/6.4 | 1/0 | 28/30 | 43/39 | 206/348 | 0/0 | 3/1 | 4.5/8.7 | 409/539 | 4.9/7.7 |
| 09/19/12 @ Buffalo | 23-7 | +3.5 W | 53/39 | 269/171 | 5.1/4.4 | 0/1 | 13/4 | 28/24 | 135/64 | 1/3 | 5/2 | 4.1/2.5 | 404/235 | 4.7/3.6 |
| 09/29/12 Ball St. | 45-43 | +2.5 W | 36/38 | 179/118 | 5.0/3.1 | 0/1 | 16/32 | 32/43 | 282/439 | 1/0 | 2/1 | 8.3/10.0 | 461/557 | 6.6/6.8 |
| 10/06/12 @ Eastern Mich | 41-14 | -3.0 W | 55/21 | 325/109 | 5.9/5.2 | 0/0 | 14/9 | 24/17 | 146/91 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 6.1/5.1 | 471/200 | 6.0/5.1 |
| 10/13/12 @ Army | 31-17 | -2.0 W | 36/70 | 286/332 | 7.9/4.7 | 0/1 | 7/10 | 12/20 | 81/125 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 6.2/6.0 | 367/457 | 7.5/5.0 |
| 10/20/12 Western Mich | 41-24 | -3.5 W | 30/35 | 183/152 | 6.1/4.3 | 1/3 | 18/30 | 33/57 | 203/326 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 6.2/5.6 | 386/478 | 6.1/5.1 |
| 10/27/12 @ Rutgers | 35-23 | +13.5 W | 45/20 | 242/106 | 5.4/5.3 | 2/1 | 15/25 | 22/46 | 131/303 | 0/6 | 0/2 | 6.0/6.3 | 373/409 | 5.6/6.0 |
| 11/03/12 Akron | 35-24 | -19.5 L | 40/32 | 261/147 | 6.5/4.6 | 0/1 | 14/30 | 19/41 | 103/295 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 5.4/6.9 | 364/442 | 6.2/5.9 |
| 11/10/12 @ Miami Ohio | 48-32 | -6.5 W | 47/16 | 408/56 | 8.7/3.5 | 0/0 | 10/37 | 16/50 | 140/425 | 2/2 | 1/5 | 8.2/7.7 | 548/481 | 8.6/6.8 |
| 11/17/12 @ Bowling Green | 31-24 | +2.5 W | 41/30 | 352/92 | 8.6/3.1 | 2/0 | 9/22 | 17/44 | 75/348 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 4.2/7.7 | 427/440 | 7.2/5.9 |
| 11/23/12 Ohio | 28-6 | -9.5 W | 35/50 | 213/187 | 6.1/3.7 | 1/1 | 9/21 | 20/37 | 170/152 | 1/1 | 0/8 | 8.5/3.4 | 383/339 | 7.0/3.6 |
| 11/30/12 Northern Ill | 37-44 | +7.0 T | 41/56 | 111/334 | 2.7/6.0 | 0/2 | 15/19 | 37/34 | 160/190 | 2/1 | 4/4 | 3.9/5.0 | 271/524 | 3.3/5.6 |
| Notes: |
1. Spreads shown relative to the Kent State. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Kent State/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included. |
| GAME LOGS 2012 | RUSHING | PASSING | TOTAL | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | Score | Spread | Atts | Yds | Ypr | Fum | Comp | Att | Yds | Int | Sac | Yppp | Yds | Yppl |
| 09/01/12 @ Ohio St. | 10-56 | +23.0 L | 19/52 | 44/338 | 2.3/6.5 | 1/0 | 32/19 | 54/33 | 285/222 | 2/0 | 2/3 | 5.1/6.2 | 329/560 | 4.4/6.4 |
| 09/08/12 Southern Illinois | 30-14 | 0.0 W | 32/37 | 130/158 | 4.1/4.3 | 1/0 | 28/19 | 36/34 | 209/191 | 0/2 | 2/1 | 5.5/5.5 | 339/349 | 4.8/4.8 |
| 09/15/12 @ Boise St. | 12-39 | +21.0 L | 23/45 | 63/295 | 2.7/6.6 | 0/1 | 21/24 | 28/31 | 164/304 | 0/1 | 4/0 | 5.1/9.8 | 227/599 | 4.1/7.9 |
| 09/22/12 Massachusetts | 27-16 | -25.0 L | 41/50 | 232/264 | 5.7/5.3 | 0/0 | 12/19 | 22/40 | 179/207 | 1/3 | 3/1 | 7.2/5.0 | 411/471 | 6.2/5.2 |
| 09/29/12 @ Akron | 56-49 | -4.0 W | 39/26 | 204/183 | 5.2/7.0 | 0/0 | 34/32 | 49/42 | 501/446 | 0/1 | 2/0 | 9.8/10.6 | 705/629 | 7.8/9.3 |
| 10/06/12 @ Cincinnati | 14-52 | +19.5 L | 19/50 | 79/272 | 4.2/5.4 | 1/0 | 27/13 | 53/23 | 300/157 | 3/0 | 3/0 | 5.4/6.8 | 379/429 | 5.1/5.9 |
| 10/13/12 @ Bowling Green | 12-37 | +7.0 L | 20/43 | 29/262 | 1.5/6.1 | 1/0 | 21/20 | 39/27 | 227/226 | 2/1 | 6/1 | 5.0/8.1 | 256/488 | 3.9/6.9 |
| 10/27/12 Ohio | 23-20 | +7.0 W | 33/43 | 118/206 | 3.6/4.8 | 0/0 | 21/23 | 36/38 | 306/258 | 1/0 | 2/6 | 8.1/5.9 | 424/464 | 6.0/5.3 |
| 11/03/12 @ Buffalo | 24-27 | +3.5 W | 33/38 | 120/230 | 3.6/6.1 | 1/1 | 25/14 | 44/25 | 220/137 | 0/1 | 3/0 | 4.7/5.5 | 340/367 | 4.3/5.8 |
| 11/10/12 Kent State | 32-48 | +6.5 L | 16/47 | 56/408 | 3.5/8.7 | 0/0 | 37/10 | 50/16 | 425/140 | 2/2 | 5/1 | 7.7/8.2 | 481/548 | 6.8/8.6 |
| 11/17/12 @ Central Mich | 16-30 | +3.5 L | 36/34 | 111/186 | 3.1/5.5 | 1/0 | 27/13 | 44/23 | 323/202 | 1/1 | 5/0 | 6.6/8.8 | 434/388 | 5.1/6.8 |
| 11/23/12 Ball St. | 24-31 | +7.0 T | 25/54 | 114/244 | 4.6/4.5 | 1/0 | 26/11 | 40/21 | 207/127 | 0/0 | 2/1 | 4.9/5.8 | 321/371 | 4.8/4.9 |
| Notes: |
1. Spreads shown relative to the Miami Ohio. 2. Stats read as Offense/Defense or Miami Ohio/Opponent. 3. Stats are versus Div-1A teams only. Div-1AA games are not included. |
