Topic: Sports Betting
Conservative money management and a 56% win percentage lead to outstanding annual returns.
Mathematical models predict the median result of games and determine the value of erroneous lines.
Fundamental and Technical analysis, combined with Team and Situational trends give context to the models.
Many different factors combine to create my Best Bets.
Topic: Money Management
An overview of optimal bet sizing and careful money management.
A brief, non-technical summary of four basic strategies designed to fit unique risk profiles.
Optimal growth formulas capture the greatest long term, risk-adjusted reward.
A graphical demonstration of the Kelly Criterion applied to bet sizing over a long period.
The mathematics which cause some winning sports bettors to actually lose money, and how to avoid the common pitfalls of un-optimized bet sizing.
More common mistakes made by bettors who do not understand the goals of long-term optimization.
Considering risk, return, investment duration, and whether to maximize expected value or win probability.
Topic: Advanced Topics
Expected Fluctuation from sample to sample for events with uncertain outcomes, and the utter normality of hot and cold streaks.
Variance in sports, betting and life.
Why being "results oriented" is not always a good thing.
Using simple statistics to debunk the ridiculous claims of other sports betting touts.
Earning profits with your profits, and the tradeoff between immediate equity and long term growth.
Comparing the risk adjusted return of Dr. Bob's picks to the S&P 500.