Saturday Opinion and 2 Sunday Best Bets for $15 ($20 for Non-Members)
I am now 300-208-9 on a Star Basis the last 15 weeks and I am 161-121-6 on Stars on my NBA Best Bets this season. I have an opinion on Saturday’s side and Best Bets on the side and the total for Sunday’s Miami at Indiana game 3.

You can get my Saturday opinion and Sunday Best Bets for $15 ($20 for Non-Members). Click here for my Saturday and Sunday NBA Analysis.

NBA Guru Service
Best Bets 144-113-2 (307-239-4 on a Star Basis)
The NBA Guru passed on Friday. For the season the NBA Guru is 144-113-2 on his Best Bets (80-62-1 on totals, 38-30 on sides, 16-12 on 1st half sides and 10-9-1 on 1st half totals) and 307-239-4 on Stars (19-13 on 3-Stars, 125-100-2 on 2-Stars).

The NBA Guru has 1 NBA Best Bet, a side, for just $15. There is also a season subscriptions available in the Available Subscriptions page.

Click here to subscribe to the NBA Guru service.

NBA Playoff Package Available for just $145.
I'm having a very good NBA season at 161-121-6 on a Star Basis (57%) and I've won 12 of the last 15 weeks overall. I have a subscription that goes through the NBA Finals that will save you money over buying daily.

Click here to subscribe to one of my Seasonal Packages.

Dr Bob Basketball Best Bets 639-544-15 on Stars.
300-208-9 on Stars last 15 Weeks!
I lost my Friday 2-Star Best Bet on Miami. Playoff Best Bets are 29-25 on Stars (5-3 3-Star and 7-8 on 2-Stars), the series plays are +0.4 Stars, the Strong Opinions are 8-7 and the leans are 9-12. I'm having a very good NBA season at 161-121-6 on a Star Basis (57%).

My Best Bets are 300-208-9 on a Star Basis since that horrible stretch in late January/early February that lost us 40 stars in 10 days (my 2nd worst such stretch in 25 years). I said then that I was likely to win going forward given my long term track record and that has certainly been the case. I've picked up +73.8 Stars of profit since mid-February. I see no reason why I won't be more profitable by the end of the season given my good feel for the NBA this season.

For the season I am 269-238-7 on my Basketball Best Bets and 639-544-15 on a Star Basis (6-1 on 4-Stars, 89-66-1 on 3-Stars and 173-171-6 on 2-Stars) and +0.4 Stars on playoff series plays for +42.0 Stars at -1.10 odds and +68.2 Stars at -105 odds.

Season Packages Available!!
My season packages for Basketball are now available and they will save you money from buying daily packages, while also receiving the Best Bets as they're being released, which helps you get better lines. My Full Season and through the NCAA Tournament Basketball subscriptions includes all NBA and College Best Bets and this year my subscribers will also get a list of all games that apply to any significant situations. As detailed below, the situational analysis in College Basketball has been very good 1079-878-41 (55.1%) and all subscribers will get those games regardless of whether they are Best Bets or not.

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BASKETBALL
My Basketball Best Bets are 7085-6013-276 on a Star Basis the last 14 seasons, for a profit of +479.9 Stars at -1.10 odds (including +9.2 Stars on playoff series bets), and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons. However, my 2011-12 Basketball Best Bets were just 206-192-5 (51.8%) for -20.8 Stars and the problem was the NBA. I was a profitable 158-136-4 on College Best Bets but only 48-56-1 on my NBA Best Bets, as the NBA situations did not work at all – most likely due to the strange scheduling of the shortened season.

College Basketball Methods Study
While my College Basketball handicapping was profitable in 2011-12, I was not satisfied with my 53.7% win percentage (53.2% on a Star Basis) so I went back over my notes for the last 3 years and added up the record of every game that applied to a significant situation and every game that my ratings showed significant line value to see if I can improve my performance.

For every game in which a situation applies I assign a rating from 1 to 5 and I generally played games with a 4 or 5 situational rating as long as my ratings suggest that the line is at least fair. I will play games with situational ratings of 2 or 3 if my ratings suggest that I have line value on the same side in addition to the positive situation. What I found is that I’m not giving enough credit to my situational analysis in College Basketball and that a game with a good situation shouldn’t be passed if my ratings perceive the line value to be just a bit negative. In other words, I’m passing on a lot of winning games that have a situational rating of 2 or 3 because my ratings suggest negative line value of ½ a point or a point. My ratings do show overall value, but my ratings are also not 100% what the true line should be, so a difference from the line of 1 point or less is not strong enough for me to pass on a good situation that favors the other side.

Last season, for instance, the college games that had a 2 or higher situational rating were 414-340-14 ATS, a very profitable 54.9% and +40 units at -110 odds, but my record on College Best Bets with a 2 or higher situational rating were 138-114-4 ATS (54.8%), which means that the significant situational games that I didn’t play were 276-226-10 ATS (55.0%). That’s a lot of profit that I passed on for various reasons. Reason #1 is that I didn’t have enough faith in games that I applied a situational rating of 2 or 3 and the other is because I was passing on too many games when my ratings even slightly favored the other side. My ratings do have merit, as games with a significant rating difference (i.e. when my ratings prediction was 2 points or more from the line) were a decent 53.4% ATS and Best Bets that had a ratings difference of 3 points or more that also had a positive situational rating were a very profitable 45-18-1 ATS last season.

Over the 3 years of my study the games with a situational rating of 2 or higher were a very profitable 1079-878-41 (55.1%). If I just made every one of those games a 2-Star Best Bet then I would have been +226.4 Stars over those 3 years. Those are not back-fitted results, as 3 seasons ago I began assigning situational ratings to every game before the games each day were played. I just didn’t get around tabulating the record of the situational ratings until this summer because I had been +65.0 Stars in Basketball Best Bets the two years prior to last season (so I didn’t think I needed to fix anything) and I spent most of my time the previous summer working on my new NFL math model. I just assumed that the games with situational ratings of 2 or 3 were going to be worse than the games with situational ratings of 4 or 5 and that was not the case. The games rated at 5 are actually better at 58.1%, but the games with situational ratings of 2, 3, or 4 are not significantly different from one another and, in fact, the 2 rated games were actually slightly better.

My College Basketball ratings have been pretty good, but they simply haven’t been as strong as the College situations have been and most of the profit from the ratings comes when a situation is favoring the same side. As I mentioned earlier, those games were 45-18-1 ATS last season and they have been 123-85-5 (59.1%) the last 3 years. A game that has a ratings differential of 3 points or more from the line that didn’t have a positive situational rating were a more modest 53.2% and the games with a ratings differential of 2 or 2 ½ points from the line with no positive situation in support were just 52.1%.

The biggest mistake I’ve made the past 3 years in College Basketball is allowing a small negative ratings differential to keep me from playing games that apply to a significant situation. I’ve had good success on my College Basketball Best Bets the last 3 years (403-335-11 for 54.6%), but I’ve left a lot of profit behind by under-weighting the situational analysis and over-weighting my ratings. I also have done a poor job of assigning Star values to my College Basketball Best Bets, as my 2-Star Best Bets have the exact same long term win percentage as my 3-Star and 4-Star Best Bets in College Basketball. I now know that the games with a situational rating of 4 are no better than those rated at 2 or 3 and the only games that have really proven to be higher percentage plays are the games that have a positive situational rating along with a difference of 3 points or more in my ratings from the line. There are grey areas in between that will be worthy of a higher rating, but most of my higher rated plays will be games that apply to a significant situation AND have significant line value.

If I had just played every single game with a situational rating of 2 or higher I would have been 1079-878-41 (55.1%) the last 3 seasons for +226.4 Stars even if I had made every game only a 2-Star Best Bet, so I’ve been way to conservative and that will change this season. I do realize that it may be hard to kick my habit of being too conservative, but I will also include every single game with a situational rating of 2 or higher in my daily email, regardless of whether it is a Best Bet or not, so those of you that just want to play those can do so – even if I’m not.

NBA Methods Study
My NBA handicapping has been just as good as my College Basketball handicapping over the years, as I am 53.7% on a Star Basis on my NBA Best Bets the last 13 seasons for +123.7 Stars of profit at -110 odds. However, last year was my worst year percentage wise (46.2%) and my second worst year in 25 years in profit/loss at -32.4 Stars. The NBA situational analysis was just 47.0% and the games with a significant difference between my ratings and the line were only 49.1% last year (the first year my ratings have been under 50%). I’m hoping the problem was the strange scheduling in a shortened regular season, as that is a plausible reason why my situations didn’t work. I’m not sure I can blame a down year in my ratings to the different scheduling patterns but it certainly didn’t help.

Over the 3 years since I’ve been assigning situational ratings to each game the NBA situations are 503-468-19 ATS, but they were a horrendous 151-170-6 ATS last season, which means that the situational analysis was a profitable 352-298-13 ATS (54.2%) in the seasons with a normal 82 game schedule. My NBA ratings were down last year but they’ve been a solid 53.5% over the years on significant differences from the line and I’ll chalk up last year’s down year for the ratings to variance.

With the NBA going back to a normal 82 game schedule, I expect my situational analysis to start working again and the long term record of my NBA ratings has been profitable too. So, I’m expecting to bounce back with a profitable NBA season, as I’ve never lost in the NBA in consecutive seasons in 25 years.

Free Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

My Saturday lean on New York lost. My Basketball Best Bets have won 9 consecutive weeks, which is what's really important to me, and I'm 25-18-1 on my Free Best Bets. However, it's been a strange losing season with the opinions, which are just 61-77-5 on my free opinions this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Saturday Opinion and 2 Sunday Best Bets for $15 ($20 for Non-Members)
I am now 300-208-9 on a Star Basis the last 15 weeks and I am 161-121-6 on Stars on my NBA Best Bets this season. I have an opinion on Saturday’s side and Best Bets on the side and the total for Sunday’s Miami at Indiana game 3.

You can get my Saturday opinion and Sunday Best Bets for $15 ($20 for Non-Members). Click here for my Saturday and Sunday NBA Analysis.