Week 2 Analysis posted on Thursday after 3 pm Pacific.

Week 1 Recap
Best Bets 2-1, Strong Opinions 4-1
I had 3 Best Bets to open the season and went 2-1 on those games, winning 2-Stars on Oklahoma State, winning 2-Stars on Clemson -24 and losing a 3-Star on Cincinnati +3 for a slightly profitable 4-3 on a Star Basis. As most of you know, the lines move on my Best Bets shortly after I release them to my subscribers and that sometimes makes a difference in results. This week, the Clemson game went from -24 to -24 1/2 shortly after the release and then went all the way to -27 1/2 by game time. The Tigers won by 25 points, but that game was only a Best Bet at -24 or less, so if you got a line of higher than 24 points then it was just an opinion. So, Clemson was either a 2-Star Best Bet win at -24 or a Strong Opinion (which either won at -24 1/2 or lost at higher lines). Clemson dominated the line of scrimmage with 9.2 yards per play, although their defense did allow 5.6 yppl, which is higher than I envisioned. Oklahoma State dominated a still bad Washington State team 65-17 in an easy win and that line went from -15 or -15 1/2 at release time to -17, which still made it a Best Bet. I was certainly disappointed by Cincinnati, who struggled offensively against what I think is a below average Fresno State defense (well, maybe they're not after all). Cincy went from a 3-Star at +3 to a 2-Star at +2 1/2 after the line move. So, my 4-3 record on Stars based on the lines at the time of release was 2-2 on Stars based on the lines after they moved. The Strong Opinions were 4-1 with wins on Arizona on Friday night, Michigan State on Saturday, East Carolina on Sunday, and Maryland on Monday. The Strong Opinion loss was on Florida -35, which actually wasn't a strong opinion after the line moved to higher than 35 (of course, it will officially count as a Strong Opinion loss in my records since the line was -35 at the time of release).

Season Packages Now Available!!
My season packages for Football and Basketball are now available and they will save you money from buying weekly packages, while also receiving the Best Bets earlier than buying them on a week to week basis from my website (which makes a big difference in college football, where the lines move shortly after releasing them to my seasonal clients). A full season of football Best Bets and Strong Opinions for both NFL and College Football (including Bowl games and NFL Playoffs) are available for just $1245, or you can opt to subscribe for NFL only ($495) or College Only ($845) packages. I also have a package that gives you all of my Football and Basketball Best Bets through the NBA playoffs in 2011 for just $2455 – which saves you over $1000 from the $3550 it would cost you to pay for all Football and Basketball Best Bets on a weekly/monthly basis (at the member discounted price).

Click here to subscribe to one of my Seasonal Packages.

Football Best Bets
My Football Best Bets are 2141-1764-102 on a Star Basis the last 11 seasons, for a profit of +200.6 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 23 seasons.

Basketball Best Bets
My Basketball Best Bets are 6167-5178-249 on a Star Basis the last 12 seasons, for a profit of +471.2 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 23 seasons.

For a season by season breakdown of each sport the last 11 years you can visit my Past Performance page.

Best Bets Release Page
As many of you know, the lines on my Best Bets move quickly after I release the Best Bets each Thursday. A few years ago I added Football and Basketball Best Bets release pages, which allows all subscribers to get the Best Bets at exactly the same time and gives you the best chance of getting down before the lines move. From what I’ve heard from my clients, most of those that use the release pages get their bets in before the lines move. The release page is the major reason why a season subscription is a better option than paying for the Best Bets on a weekly or daily basis (and you also save money buying a subscription).

2009 Season Recap
I had one of my worst College Football seasons ever, but I was still over 50% winners despite losing more close games than I won, including a few big plays that lost on the final play. I ended the season at just 35-33-2 (90-88-5 on a Star Basis) on my Best Bets for the season based on the line at the time of release and 32-30-2 based on the lines after they move. I was also 2-0 on my season win totals with 2-Stars on UCLA Under 6 1/2 or 7 wins and 2-Stars on Oregon over 7 1/2 wins, so that added 4 Stars to make my season record 94-88-5 on a Star Basis for a loss of 2.8 Stars at -1.10 odds. My Strong Opinions were 44-35 for the season.

This past season was defined by two 4-Star Best Bets that I lost in the final seconds earlier in the season (West Virginia against Colorado in a game West Virginia was -4 in fumbles and should have won by 30, and Arizona, who lost to Washington on an interception that deflected off a receiver's foot that was run in for the game winning TD) and the last play meaningless touchdown by Colorado (again) against Nebraska that didn't win the game but covered the spread and gave me a 3-Star loss instead of a 3-Star win on the Huskers. Losing those 3 games instead of winning them was the difference in my season, as I'd be 105-77-5 on a Star Basis had those games won instead of lost and I didn't had any miracle last second wins to balance out those losses. I've had years when I've won more close games than I've lost (like my 74% season in 2005), but 2009 was certainly not one of those years.

My College Best Bets are a very profitable 676-502-33 (57.4%) on a Star Basis since 2004 and is more indicative of my future results than last year's record, which was made worse by more bad luck than good. My College Strong Opinions are now 297-232-8 (56.1%) since 2003. For the year by year results in every sport over the last 10 years you can check out my Past Performance page.

2010 Adjustments
As I do every year, I spend time in the summer analyzing my methods to improve the performance of my Best Bets. There have been concerns in recent years that the odds makers have caught up to my math model, but that is certainly not the case. In fact, my College Football math model has been just as good the last 3 years as it was during my very profitable years from 2004 through 2006. The games that my College model gave a 56% or higher chance of covering were 93-71-1 last season, 98-62-4 in 2008 and 92-66-4 in 2007 for a total win percentage of 59% (283-199-9). The problem with the last 3 years has been the over reliance on the technical analysis, which has not worked like it did in previous years (it was especially bad in 2007, which is why I had a losing year despite my math model doing well). Overall, my studies show that the technical analysis still adds value but it will take on less weight this season as my analysis relies more on the consistent performance of my math model.

For those that are new to Dr Bob Sports, I recommend reading the essays in the Sports Betting section under Essays in the menu and sample analysis listed below.

Sample College Analysis
Sample NFL Analysis

Free Analysis
Each week during the season I will continue to provide more free information than any other web-site (about 50-60 NFL and College games analyzed for free each week) and I hope you enjoyed that analysis last season and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. My Free NFL analysis is posted on Thursday morning at 10 am Pacific each week and the College Free analysis is posted on Thursday and Friday each week.

2009-10 Season Record: 181-147-5 on Best Bets for +35.5 Stars
For the season I was 181-147-5 and 426-355-12 on a Star Basis (1-1 on 4-Stars, 62-59-2 on 3-Stars and 118-87-3 on 2-Stars) on my Basketball Best Bets (college and NBA) for a profit of +35.5 Stars (at -1.10 odds), which is quite a turnaround from the -11.7 Stars I was at on February 1st (I said then that my season would be profitable if I started to even out my record on the close games). I had a pretty profitable season despite losing more close games than I won, as my Best Bets were just 34-41-5 on games decided by 3 points or less, including just 12-17-2 on close 3-Star Best Bets. I was 59-46-1 on my NBA Best Bets and 122-101-4 in College Basketball.

Basketball Best Bets +471.2 Stars Last 12 Seasons!
My Basketball Best Bets are 6167-5178-249 on a Star Basis the last 12 seasons, for a profit of +471.2 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 23 seasons.

Basketball Subscriptions
You can save money from buying day to day with my Basketball season subscription. More importantly, you also have access to my Basketball release page with both packages, which allows you to get down before the lines move. Click the link below for the updated season subscription price.

Available Best Bets Packages

Basketball Best Bets will be available for purchase on a daily basis for $15.

Free Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

I'm now 4-6-1 on my Free Best Bets and 110-105-4 on my free opinions this season.

I am now 26-24-1 on my Free Best Bets and 323-290-12 on my free opinions the last 3 seasons.