2012 College Football Recap
College Best Bets 113-80 on a Star Basis for +25.0 Stars for the Season
I had a very good season on my College Football Best Bets despite my bowl Best Bets not being good. I was just 1-4 on my 5 Bowl Best Bets, but all of them were 2-Star Best Bets and only put a dent into my season profit.

For the season I was 47-35 on my Best Bets and 113-80 on a Star Basis (0-1 on 4-Stars, 19-8 on 3-Stars, and 28-26 on 2-Stars) for +25.0 Stars at -1.10 odds. My College Futures bets lost for the first time, dropping 9.3 Stars (I am now +8.5 Stars in 4 years on my College Futures plays), so those that were with me from before the season started were +15.7 Stars of profit.

My College Best Bets are now 996-770-37 on a Star Basis since 2004 (and 56% lifetime) and my Strong Opinions are 401-347-10 since 2003 and a profitable 54% lifetime.

Basketball Best Bets +479.9 Stars Last 14 Seasons!
My Basketball Best Bets are 7085-6013-276 on a Star Basis the last 14 seasons, for a profit of +479.9 Stars at -1.10 odds (including +9.2 Stars on playoff series bets), and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons.

For a season by season breakdown of each sport the last 13 years you can visit my Past Performance page.

Season Packages Available!!
My season packages for Football and Basketball are now available and they will save you money from buying weekly packages, while also receiving the Best Bets earlier than buying them on a week to week basis from my website (which makes a big difference in college football, where the lines move shortly after releasing them to my seasonal clients). I will also be releasing some Football Best Bets earlier in the week to my subscribers while those buying the weekly package will have to wait until Thursday afternoon to get all the Best Bets. There are 4 week subscription packages available for football and I also will have 31 day packages for Basketball. However, the season subscriptions will save you plenty of money over the course of the season.

Click here to subscribe to one of my Seasonal Packages.

For those that are new to Dr Bob Sports, I recommend reading the essays in the Sports Betting section under Essays in the menu and sample analysis listed below.

Sample College Analysis
Sample NFL Analysis

Free Analysis
Each week during the season I will continue to provide more free information than any other web-site (about 50-60 NFL and College games analyzed for free each week) and I hope you enjoyed that analysis last season and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. My Free NFL analysis is posted on Thursday morning at 10 am Pacific each week and the College Free analysis is posted on Thursday and Friday each week.

Super Bowl Best Bet a Winner
I had a horrible regular season in the NFL at 19-24-1 on my Best Bets but I won my only 2 postseason Best Bets with 3-Stars on San Francisco over Green Bay and 2-Stars on my only Superbowl Best Bet - Under 1.5 total interceptions. I also picked Baltimore to beat the favored 49ers straight up and my playoff side and total opinions were 8-2 this year (and I'm now 139-100-5 picking every playoff side the last 23 years). I didn't have an opinion on the total and my other 3 proposition opinions were 1-2 in the Superbowl.

NFL Season Recap
I finished the 2012 NFL season at just 21-24-1 on my NFL Best Bets (51-58-2 on a Star Basis) for a loss of -12.8 Stars at -110 odds, but thankfully I was +25.0 Stars on College game Best Bets (although I did lose on my season win bets for the first time) and almost all of my NFL clients get my College Best Bets too. I didn't have any strong plays for season win totals, so I only gave out 4 1-Star plays to my subscribers. This is the first year I've lost in my NFL futures plays, as those 4 season win totals plays went 1-3 for -1.95 Stars.

For those that are new to Dr Bob Sports, I recommend reading the essays in the Sports Betting section under Essays in the menu and sample analysis listed below.

Sample College Analysis
Sample NFL Analysis

Free Analysis
Each week during the season I will continue to provide more free information than any other web-site (about 50-60 NFL and College games analyzed for free each week) and I hope you enjoyed that analysis last season and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. My Free NFL analysis is posted on Thursday morning at 10 am Pacific each week and the College Free analysis is posted on Thursday and Friday each week.

Weekend NBA Below.
I don't have any Best Bets or Strong Opinions on this weekend's NBA games, so I've posted the analysis at the bottom of this page.

NBA Playoff Package Available for just $185.
I'm having a very good NBA season at 159-117-6 on a Star Basis (57.6%) and I've won 12 of the last 15 weeks overall. I have a subscription that goes through the NBA Finals that will save you money over buying daily.

Click here to subscribe to one of my Seasonal Packages.

Dr Bob Basketball Best Bets 637-540-15 on Stars.
299-204-9 on Stars last 4 Weeks!
I won my Thursday 3-Star Best Bet on New York and my lean on the Warriors-Spurs Under. Playoff Best Bets are 27-21 on Stars (5-3 3-Star and 6-6 on 2-Stars), the series plays are +0.4 Stars, the Strong Opinions are 8-7 and the leans are 9-12. I'm having a very good NBA season at 159-117-6 on a Star Basis (57.6%).

My Best Bets are 298-204-9 on a Star Basis since that horrible stretch in late January/early February that lost us 40 stars in 10 days (my 2nd worst such stretch in 25 years). I said then that I was likely to win going forward given my long term track record and that has certainly been the case. I've picked up +70.0 Stars of profit since mid-February. I see no reason why I won't be more profitable by the end of the season given my good feel for the NBA this season.

For the season I am 268-236-7 on my Basketball Best Bets and 637-540-15 on a Star Basis (6-1 on 4-Stars, 89-66-1 on 3-Stars and 172-169-6 on 2-Stars) and +0.4 Stars on playoff series plays for +43.4 Stars at -1.10 odds and +70.4 Stars at -105 odds.

NBA Guru Service
Best Bets 143-112-1 (305-237-2 on a Star Basis)
The NBA Guru didn't have a Best Bet on Thursday. For the season the NBA Guru is 143-112-1 on his Best Bets (80-61 on totals, 37-30 on sides, 16-12 on 1st half sides and 10-9-1 on 1st half totals) and 305-237-2 on Stars (19-13 on 3-Stars, 124-99-1 on 2-Stars).

You can purchase The NBA Guru's daily plays after 3 pm Pacific time each day (times vary on the weekends). There is also a season subscriptions available in the Available Subscriptions page.

Click here to subscribe to the NBA Guru service.

Season Packages Available!!
My season packages for Basketball are now available and they will save you money from buying daily packages, while also receiving the Best Bets as they're being released, which helps you get better lines. My Full Season and through the NCAA Tournament Basketball subscriptions includes all NBA and College Best Bets and this year my subscribers will also get a list of all games that apply to any significant situations. As detailed below, the situational analysis in College Basketball has been very good 1079-878-41 (55.1%) and all subscribers will get those games regardless of whether they are Best Bets or not.

Click here to subscribe to one of my Seasonal Packages.

BASKETBALL
My Basketball Best Bets are 7085-6013-276 on a Star Basis the last 14 seasons, for a profit of +479.9 Stars at -1.10 odds (including +9.2 Stars on playoff series bets), and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons. However, my 2011-12 Basketball Best Bets were just 206-192-5 (51.8%) for -20.8 Stars and the problem was the NBA. I was a profitable 158-136-4 on College Best Bets but only 48-56-1 on my NBA Best Bets, as the NBA situations did not work at all – most likely due to the strange scheduling of the shortened season.

College Basketball Methods Study
While my College Basketball handicapping was profitable in 2011-12, I was not satisfied with my 53.7% win percentage (53.2% on a Star Basis) so I went back over my notes for the last 3 years and added up the record of every game that applied to a significant situation and every game that my ratings showed significant line value to see if I can improve my performance.

For every game in which a situation applies I assign a rating from 1 to 5 and I generally played games with a 4 or 5 situational rating as long as my ratings suggest that the line is at least fair. I will play games with situational ratings of 2 or 3 if my ratings suggest that I have line value on the same side in addition to the positive situation. What I found is that I’m not giving enough credit to my situational analysis in College Basketball and that a game with a good situation shouldn’t be passed if my ratings perceive the line value to be just a bit negative. In other words, I’m passing on a lot of winning games that have a situational rating of 2 or 3 because my ratings suggest negative line value of ½ a point or a point. My ratings do show overall value, but my ratings are also not 100% what the true line should be, so a difference from the line of 1 point or less is not strong enough for me to pass on a good situation that favors the other side.

Last season, for instance, the college games that had a 2 or higher situational rating were 414-340-14 ATS, a very profitable 54.9% and +40 units at -110 odds, but my record on College Best Bets with a 2 or higher situational rating were 138-114-4 ATS (54.8%), which means that the significant situational games that I didn’t play were 276-226-10 ATS (55.0%). That’s a lot of profit that I passed on for various reasons. Reason #1 is that I didn’t have enough faith in games that I applied a situational rating of 2 or 3 and the other is because I was passing on too many games when my ratings even slightly favored the other side. My ratings do have merit, as games with a significant rating difference (i.e. when my ratings prediction was 2 points or more from the line) were a decent 53.4% ATS and Best Bets that had a ratings difference of 3 points or more that also had a positive situational rating were a very profitable 45-18-1 ATS last season.

Over the 3 years of my study the games with a situational rating of 2 or higher were a very profitable 1079-878-41 (55.1%). If I just made every one of those games a 2-Star Best Bet then I would have been +226.4 Stars over those 3 years. Those are not back-fitted results, as 3 seasons ago I began assigning situational ratings to every game before the games each day were played. I just didn’t get around tabulating the record of the situational ratings until this summer because I had been +65.0 Stars in Basketball Best Bets the two years prior to last season (so I didn’t think I needed to fix anything) and I spent most of my time the previous summer working on my new NFL math model. I just assumed that the games with situational ratings of 2 or 3 were going to be worse than the games with situational ratings of 4 or 5 and that was not the case. The games rated at 5 are actually better at 58.1%, but the games with situational ratings of 2, 3, or 4 are not significantly different from one another and, in fact, the 2 rated games were actually slightly better.

My College Basketball ratings have been pretty good, but they simply haven’t been as strong as the College situations have been and most of the profit from the ratings comes when a situation is favoring the same side. As I mentioned earlier, those games were 45-18-1 ATS last season and they have been 123-85-5 (59.1%) the last 3 years. A game that has a ratings differential of 3 points or more from the line that didn’t have a positive situational rating were a more modest 53.2% and the games with a ratings differential of 2 or 2 ½ points from the line with no positive situation in support were just 52.1%.

The biggest mistake I’ve made the past 3 years in College Basketball is allowing a small negative ratings differential to keep me from playing games that apply to a significant situation. I’ve had good success on my College Basketball Best Bets the last 3 years (403-335-11 for 54.6%), but I’ve left a lot of profit behind by under-weighting the situational analysis and over-weighting my ratings. I also have done a poor job of assigning Star values to my College Basketball Best Bets, as my 2-Star Best Bets have the exact same long term win percentage as my 3-Star and 4-Star Best Bets in College Basketball. I now know that the games with a situational rating of 4 are no better than those rated at 2 or 3 and the only games that have really proven to be higher percentage plays are the games that have a positive situational rating along with a difference of 3 points or more in my ratings from the line. There are grey areas in between that will be worthy of a higher rating, but most of my higher rated plays will be games that apply to a significant situation AND have significant line value.

If I had just played every single game with a situational rating of 2 or higher I would have been 1079-878-41 (55.1%) the last 3 seasons for +226.4 Stars even if I had made every game only a 2-Star Best Bet, so I’ve been way to conservative and that will change this season. I do realize that it may be hard to kick my habit of being too conservative, but I will also include every single game with a situational rating of 2 or higher in my daily email, regardless of whether it is a Best Bet or not, so those of you that just want to play those can do so – even if I’m not.

NBA Methods Study
My NBA handicapping has been just as good as my College Basketball handicapping over the years, as I am 53.7% on a Star Basis on my NBA Best Bets the last 13 seasons for +123.7 Stars of profit at -110 odds. However, last year was my worst year percentage wise (46.2%) and my second worst year in 25 years in profit/loss at -32.4 Stars. The NBA situational analysis was just 47.0% and the games with a significant difference between my ratings and the line were only 49.1% last year (the first year my ratings have been under 50%). I’m hoping the problem was the strange scheduling in a shortened regular season, as that is a plausible reason why my situations didn’t work. I’m not sure I can blame a down year in my ratings to the different scheduling patterns but it certainly didn’t help.

Over the 3 years since I’ve been assigning situational ratings to each game the NBA situations are 503-468-19 ATS, but they were a horrendous 151-170-6 ATS last season, which means that the situational analysis was a profitable 352-298-13 ATS (54.2%) in the seasons with a normal 82 game schedule. My NBA ratings were down last year but they’ve been a solid 53.5% over the years on significant differences from the line and I’ll chalk up last year’s down year for the ratings to variance.

With the NBA going back to a normal 82 game schedule, I expect my situational analysis to start working again and the long term record of my NBA ratings has been profitable too. So, I’m expecting to bounce back with a profitable NBA season, as I’ve never lost in the NBA in consecutive seasons in 25 years.

Free Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

My Sunday opinions on Golden State and Under both won. My Basketball Best Bets have won 9 consecutive weeks, which is what's really important to me, and I'm 25-18-1 on my Free Best Bets. However, it's been a strange losing season with the opinions, which are just 61-76-5 on my free opinions this season.

I was 49-38-1 on my Free Best Bets and 548-487-19 on my free opinions the previous 5 seasons.

Saturday NBA
New York (+4 ½) over INDIANA
Indiana guard George Hill sat out the Pacers’ 10 point loss at New York in game 5 with a concussion and Hill has been downgraded to doubtful for game 6. Hill has been the Pacers most important player this season, as Indiana outscored their opponents during the regular season by 7.7 points per 48 minutes when he was in the game while being outscored by 3.4 points per 48 minutes when he was on the bench. Much of that negative off court number was because the other starters were also on the bench with him but the difference between having Hill in the lineup and not having him is a full 2 points based on my analysis and Indiana is now just 1-4 ATS this season when Hill doesn’t play. Indiana does apply to a 125-67-4 ATS bounce-back situation but the Knicks apply to a 33-9-1 ATS situation that won with San Antonio over the Warriors on Thursday night. The game 6 situation that the Knicks apply to is 5-2 ATS against the general situation that the Pacers apply to but Indiana has been better at home while the Knicks have been worse on the road in the postseason. My ratings favor the Pacers by just 2 points without Hill and my home-road ratings favor Indiana by 3 ½ points (adjusted for current lineups), so the line value favors the Knicks. I’ll lean with New York plus the points and I have no opinion on the total. Sunday NBA
Memphis at SAN ANTONIO (-4)
Memphis has covered in 10 consecutive games and the Grizzlies have clearly upped their level of play in the postseason, but that run of spread success has influenced the line a bit too much. My ratings favor the San Antonio by 5 points (with 183 total points) but the Spurs apply to a 13-29 ATS game 1 situation. That angle isn’t that significant but it’s enough to cancel out the line value favoring San Antonio. I have no opinion on this game.

Best Bets Recap (posted 18-May-13)

Dominant morning and afternoon ballgames gave way to a clunker at night, preventing the sweep.

Powered by Robinson Cano's 2 HRs, the Yankees were a relatively easy 7-2 winner for us over the Blue Jays. Then, less than a day after referencing a handful of our early season wins of double digit run margins, we get another, as the Reds destroyed the Phils behind 16 hits and a gem from Bronson Arroyo, 10-0.

But Anibal Sanchez got raked and chased after just 2.2IP by the Rangers to prevent what would have been a substantial daily gain. Texas wins it easily, 7-2.

Still, we'll happily take the net win and the two bullpen implosion-proof margins in our successful plays.

Saturday: 2-1 (+1.60 units/stars)
2013 MLB Season: 56-76 (-40.71 units/stars)

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About Gill - By Dr. Bob

Gill Alexander handicaps baseball using advanced sabermetrics and is known for his informative "Betting Dork" podcasts. I’ve had discussions with Gill on his methods and have been impressed with his approach to finding hidden value in baseball. I’ve never had another handicapper on my site, but I believe in Gill’s handicapping enough to start posting his baseball plays on my site (with his consent, of course).

Gill ended the 2012 regular season at +46.29 Stars of profit and continued his winning during the playoffs, picking up another +14.06 Stars of profit in the post season, including +3.60 Stars on this futures plays of 2-Stars on Detroit to win the AL (at +280 odds) and 2-Stars to win the World Series (for -2 Stars). Gill finished the 2012 Baseball season at +60.35 Stars.